Facing a litmus test

The alienation of the Sikhs from the Congress after Operation Bluestar and the November 1984 violence against members of the community following the assassination of then prime minister Indira Gandhi was when what was till then known as the Akali vote bank got transformed to the Sikh vote bank.

What is significant is the consistent pattern in which thismonolithic vote bank has behaved in almost all the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections since. The Akali boycott of elections in 1992 underlined this fact, with the rural areas considered their stronghold showing almost negligent voting.

In the Assembly elections in the pre-Bluestar period, the Akalis had been getting from 24 to 29 per cent of the total votes polled. In the post-1984 period, this share went up to 38 per cent. But in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, the Akali Dal led by Badal was completely marginalised, getting about 4 per cent votes. However, in the last Lok Sabha elections, it was the Congress which was wiped out, with candidates of the mainstream Akali Dal or those supported by it emerging victorious.

Tohra’s associates insist there is little to worry as a leader of the stature of Tohra has never earlier floated a new party. But then others refer to the marginalisation of Master Tara Singh, the tallest Akali leader of his times, following a revolt by Sant Fateh Singh. Or even of SimranjitSingh Mann who, at one time, overshadowed all others, including Badal and Tohra, but was ultimately sidetracked. The agenda of peace and “Punjabiat” adopted by Badal at the Moga convention had virtually sent Mann into oblivion. The Moga convention also marked the resurrection of Badal. The likely behaviour of the Sikh vote bank vis-a-vis Tohra has to be seen in this context.

“Tohra is considered a foxy politician by the people who do not command respect. His role has neither been steady nor consistent and as such, he is unlikely to make any impact on the behaviour of the Akali vote bank,” asserts Badal, adding it was Tohra whose politics aided and abetted militancy.

Legally, and in the game of numbers, Badal’s position is unchallenged as the supporters of the former SGPC chief are not in a position to effect a split in the Akali Dal Legislature Party. Even the working committee and the delegates, which constitute the electoral college of the Akali Dal, are with Badal, with only a few joining the newformation.

But Tohra’s associates cite the pattern in Tamil Nadu following the split in the DMK. The vote bank of the DMK had got divided between it and the AIADMK, with the Congress being the third dimension. “Our effort is to have a similar situation in Punjab,” says a close supporter.

But that would depend upon the forces the new outfit is able to mobilise as allies. Presently, only the Bahujan Samaj Party has expressed intentions to join hands with Tohra.What would also be important is the extent to which Badal is able to underplay the incumbency factor. This is the first time since 1984 that an election is being held with the mainstream Akali Dal in power. Badal is likely to highlight national issues like the origins of Congress president Sonia Gandhi versus the “charisma” of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to woo the electorate.

However, Tohra’s men say this would help the Chief Minister little. “Badal cannot divert the attention of the people from his non-performance and officialinterference in religious affairs by clinging to the apron of Vajpayee,” charges Tohra associate Prem Singh Chandumajra.

Interestingly, both the Akali Dals are raking up nationalism and religion. Both swear by “Punjabiat” and both express their unflinching loyalty to the Akal Takht, the supreme temporal institution of the community symbolising Sikh doctrine. It is a different matter that the Tohra Akali Dal continues to recognise Bhai Ranjit Singh, who was dismissed by the Badal-dominated SGPC, as the Takht chief.

Even if his party does not win many seats, Tohra will go all out to hurt the chances of the ruling Akali Dal candidates. In case the Badal faction loses a few seats to the Congress, he would try to gain politically. However, then, Badal supporters are likely to argue that Tohra is in league with the Congress.

Either way, what the two warring factions have to keep in mind is that in their conflict, the one party which is definitely likely to gain is the Congress.