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The mythical 'science' of predicting elections

New Delhi: If you go by the record of our pollsters in the last five years, you will find they got it wrong as often as they got it right. The most famous example of a collective goof-up is, of course, the 2004 parliamentary elections. Every psephologist foresaw an NDA victory and the BJP far ahead of the ....Read more

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TRP, TRP, TRP!!!By: S. Jain | Tuesday , 5 May '09 15:22:49 PM Reply | Forward It is obvious that the author has had no formal training in advanced statistical methods. There are two clues for this conclusion: (i) The concept of “margin of error” is an in-built prediction error for any statistical exercise of this nature (remember that the poll prediction exercise is based on the responses of a sample consisting of, maybe, 15,000 prospective voters from a total voter population of about 750,000,000 i.e. nearly 1:50,000!); (ii) the author has obfuscated her argument on the science behind this statistics by subtly (brazenly?) suggesting that “doctoring” is an accepted ploy within the profession: no, it is not, and such doctored statistical exercises are, ab initio, void, whatever any dubious proponent of such fudging might say. Besides misunderstanding the inherent limitations of poll predictions, the author also needs to understand why the psephologists’ tribe still thrives on mainstream TV – it’s the bottom-line, dear, eyeballs, TRP, baki sab bakwas, literally.

Which side are you on? By: Ramesh Sahni | Tuesday , 5 May '09 12:32:29 PM Reply | Forward Looks like you are one those pseudo-seculars who dot the media and bash the BJP and its constitutents as to the damage they could do if they came to power. Getting back to the point, we cant have a Third Front or Congress come into power this time.......!

Prediction for UPBy: satya | Tuesday , 5 May '09 3:08:14 AM Reply | Forward I remember during UP elections, many pollsters went totally wrong in their prediction. No one really predicted Mayawati would get a majority. However, later ndtv did a detailed analysis on why it went wrong and the analysis was very interesting.

The mythical 'science' of predicting electionsBy: Raghbendra Jha | Monday , 4 May '09 3:44:17 AM Reply | Forward Pollsters routinely get their predictions wrong. They should be held accountable for these errors since they set up certain expectations upon which people act and then these expectations are belied. There are real economic costs to such mistakes. Media outlets also have a responsibility to stop airing such unmitigated nonsense. But, of course, accountability in public life is moribund in India and, tragically, in the media as well. Physician, heal thyself!

holier than thou!!By: Pratik Bhandari | Sunday , 3 May '09 20:26:43 PM Reply | Forward I agree with this article. But I am inclined to believe that the NDTV prediction is better than the others. Again, cant say I have any scientific measure of authenticity of prediction either.

balaBy: kulamarva balakrishna | Sunday , 3 May '09 9:17:44 AM Reply | Forward vienna,03-05-2009the best forecast,at least for bjp and backers, should be bythat girl the famous human calculating machine,shakuntala,whoran away without even answering the first question at thepress conference organized for at the taj banquet room in1961.the question was mine.but shakuntala, even now ispopular india wide.it is the bhava, being´s quality of mentalhealth of the pollsters in the indian context.take iteasy coomi, although we are a great civilization our peoplein general even after going to universities remain uneducated,and new to any articulation.-kulamarva balakrishna

Prediction gimmics!By: Ashutosh Kaul | Sunday , 3 May '09 8:01:19 AM Reply | Forward Honestly compared to psephologists, astrologers have had more success in predicting election results ! Gentlemen mentioned in the first post above, do not attempt to predict as much as they attempt to influence the results. Coomi is right.Their bias is in plain view to anyone who cares.

Off track predictions.By: Nikhil | Sunday , 3 May '09 6:05:01 AM Reply | Forward Our TV pollsters are off the track because they have preconceived notions and hence predetermined results.Astrologers are better than theses psephologist's in their guesses.As these survey are funded by the interested parties the results given by these people will suit those who funded them and ground realities will be vastly different.

Yogendra Yadav is bestBy: Dipti Khandwala | Saturday , 2 May '09 19:14:51 PM Reply | Forward In my opinion, Yogendra Yadav is the best of them all. And he is also a better political commentator than others.

pranoy roy a big sycophantBy: ramesh singh | Saturday , 2 May '09 18:41:23 PM Reply | Forward mr p. roy and entire his team mates are biggest sycophants of a particular family and a party who has ruined destiny of our country.Afterall his company is serviving due to this.Every programmes have same agenda same questions .What type of this journalisum is ?

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