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Talking Kashmir after Male hype
Aabha Dixit
It was unrealistic to have expected I. K. Gujral and Nawaz Sharif in Male to have put behind the the collected animosities of the past five decades and begin with a ``clean slate''. The fact that the two leaders agreed to small steps like releasing captured fishermen, devising yet another code of conduct for diplomats and having an additional hotline at the PM-level showed that both sides are aware of the huge minefield that lies on the path of reconciliation. Prime Minister Gujral went to Male convinced in his ability that gentle persuasion could get the Pakistani leadership to soften its stand on Kashmir. Sharif came to Male seeking to make a virtue out of a necessity, which was to deflect international pressures that were building up on its economy. The manner in which both sides want to resolve their differences varies sharply. Islamabad remains convinced that the route to better Indo-Pak relations lies through Kashmir. Without using the word ``pre-conditionality'', Islamabad is now working to ensure that New Delhi must accept the fact that there is a dispute in Kashmir and that it is a ``core'' issue. This was made amply clear by Sharif while talking to the press after his one-to-one meeting with Gujral. But Gujral's statement in Jammu on April 27 that Kashmir was not an issue revealed that howsoever sincere he might be about improving bilateral relations, he would be unwilling to accept the Pakistani position on Kashmir. Instead, Gujral has been pushing for a broader relationship with Pakistan covering areas like a liberalised visa regime, growth in bilateral trade and greater interaction through cultural contacts. The changed Gujral approach does not appeal to many analysts and large sections of the Pakistani establishment, who continue to remain highly sceptical about his ``ulterior motives''. Curiously, while both countries now commit themselves to a step-by-step process, the meaning of this approach digresses in their respective capitals. For New Delhi, the step-by-step process is predicated on incremental progress on a range of issues. New Delhi reckons that such a process becomes both a tension de-escalator as well as a system through which confidence between the two countries is enhanced. But Islamaad's understanding of the step-by-step process is completely different. According to this view, the process would allow progress on the entire range of bilateral issues, but it specifically links progress on the Kashmir issue to progress in other areas. What can the forthcoming Foreign Secretaries' meeting in Islamabad achieve in terms of identifying issues and creating mechanisms to deal with them. Broad identifications of issues like accepting that there are political issues to be settled, desirability of having commercial and trading links allowing people-to-people contact, institutional contact between academic and cultural bodies on both sides could be some of the areas which might be agreed upon. But any attempt that seeks to look at individual issues will be mired in contradictory positions that the two countries hold. A glaring example of such contradictory perceptions is the matter of trade. In India, there has been a sense of optimism that, were both countries to allow for a liberal trading regime, bilateral trade would boom. Islamabad is much less sanguine about what trade can do for the two economies. The two Foreign Secretaries have been given the onerous task of selecting a menu for discussion. But what appears palatable to one appears indigestible to the other. Already, patience amongst the hawks in Pakistan's Establishment is running low. The armed forces through their mouth piece Hilal have taken an extreme view about Indian intentions. The Foreign Minister, a hawk-turned-dove, is on record just before the Male summit to having said that ``if Kashmir is not on the agenda ... then there will be a limit to the number of sittings and meetings we can have''. Before the next round of talks, both sides need to ask themselves whether they are ready for compromise. Both Gujral and Sharif in the past have spoken about soft and realistic options for Kashmir. Why not test the waters in the forthcoming meeting?The writer is a research associate at Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, New Delhi Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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