Once a caravan stop on the Great Silk Road between Europe and the Far-East, the Central Asian region today with its enormous oil and gas reserves is a destination in itself. From the hot sands of the Karakum desert to the marshy Tenghiz basin, the entire region has the potential to generate many ``Kuwaits'' of the future. This geographic and historical entity -- Harold Mackinder once called it the `heartland', the pivot zone of world history is inviting world attention today. Oil and gas understandably are big attractions and the problem associated with them is as discrete and tangible as it is dramatic and volatile. What is fast emerging in the region is a new version of the 19th century `Great Game' with the US, Russia and Iran as the key players.

For the US, the external energy resources and a continuous supply of oil at affordable prices have been paramount to its foreign policy. The ``Eisenhower Doctrine'' in 1957 demonstrated that in relation to the Middle-East. Likewise, it is good business sense that is driving the Washington policy towards Central Asia. Moreover, the oil and gas from the region offers a competitive alternative to its dependence on Middle-East, which is often beseiged by political turmoil. The US, therefore, has been typically calculative and selective in earmarking Uzbekistan as its springboard to the region. This country with a population of 22 million and with large ethnic Uzbek pockets in the other four republics it borders, wields considerable influence. It comes as no surprise that US business investment in Uzbekistan has risen to almost three billion and trade between the the two countries has increased eight fold during the period 1995-96. Uzbekistan, thus becomes a counterweight to Russian hegemonism and Iranian influence. For the US and its oil companies, a pipeline that can bypass both Russia and Iran is critical to their interest. Hence a proposed route through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Karachi port assumes tremendous significance.

For Russia, despite its diminished glory, the region is its natural ``sphere of influence''. Geographical proximity and the existing pipelines that criss-crosses its territory give Russia the ability to dictate terms with the republics. So it is still in a position to thwart the US and other western countries' access to what are the world's last known vast oil and gas reserves. Any minimum US involvement, therefore, generates maximum Russian suspicion. Russia has already embarked upon a strategic friendship with Kazakstan, hoping in the process to draw in the poor and remote Kirgyzstan as well as Tajikstan.

Iran too has an interest in the region, but it goes for beyond oil. For the Islamic Republic, the Central Asian states are its own backyard, both historically and culturally. Never in any point of history has Iran found itself in a favourable position to expand vigourously its ``guardian of the Islamic forces'' ideals. Its interest in the region is all pervasive, taking it as a whole rather than just a part. In order to patronise the republics, Iran hopes to draw them to the warm waters of the Persian gulf offering in the process the shortest and economically viable pipeline route.

To rephrase Mackinder, whoever controls the pipelines will control the oil and gas and whoever controls the oil and gas will in essence assert influence on the Central Asian republics. As for the republics themselves, the resource comes as a boon as much as a bane. Caught in the uncertainties of power games, it finds itself in an awkward situation. The US is too indispensable to be overlooked, Russia is too too close to be shrugged away and Iran is culturally close to be ignored. Pleasing one would mean displeasing the other.

With 7.5 trillion cubic mt. of known gas reserves and the lowest estimate of 20 billion barrels of oil, the face of Central Asia is certain to be quite different from what it is today. A diversified supply of oil and gas for the energy thirsty world is certainly essential. For the countries of Central Asia pipelines will be the lifeline; and an easy access to global markets will provide economic salvation.

The writer is a research fellow at JNU, Delhi

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.