MUMBAI, Jan 15: Spirit is willing but action is weak. The United Front (UF) epitomises this rephrased Biblical wisdom in Maharashtra where its electoral strategy seems to be defeating its very raison d'etre -- combating communal forces.The constituents of the UF, which has a negligible presence in the State, would only give electoral advantage to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine by putting up candidates in over 27 constituencies where their chances of winning are weak but the potential to divide anti Sena-BJP votes is strong.
As the poll scenario in the State becomes clearer, the candidates put up by the UF constituents are set to make things easier for the Sena-BJP in at least seven constituencies.
Despite feelers from the State Congress, the Janata Dal (JD) and other parties of the Front, maintained a clear distance from the party which twice pulled down its Government at the Centre. In a joint statement the UF constituents in the State ruled out any pact with the Congress, saying that the decision in this
regard was taken at the central-level.
Similarly, the Left Front parties, which have a significant following in some pockets of the State have refused to begin dialogue with even the UF, not to speak of the Congress, saying it was against its political thinking.
As a result, several constituencies, where a tough fight for the Sena-BJP was possible, may turn out to be a cake walk.
For example, Rajapur constituency in Konkan. In the 1996 general elections, Shiv Sena candidate Suresh Prabhu had won the seat with 45 per cent votes, followed by Congress's Sudhir Sawant with 29 per cent and JD's Madhu Dandavate with 19 per cent. With Dandavate reiterating his decision not to contest, it was expected that the JD would refrain from fielding a candidate from the constituency for the simple reason that its chances of getting even 19 per cent votes was bleak. In that case, a large chunk of anti-Sena votes could have been diverted to the Congress, making the contest equal.However, Janata Dal sources say it was not
possible for the party to surrender its following to the Congress.
Similarly, in Yavatmal constituency BJP candidate Rajabhau Thakare had garnered 46.2 per cent votes, closely followed by Congress's Gulam Nabi Azad with 40 per cent and JD's Pratap Lalsingh Rathod with 6 per cent votes in the last elections. The same pattern seems to be emerging in the forthcoming elections as well. Even a tacit electoral understanding between the JD and the Congress would have made it really tough for the BJP.
Yet another UF constituent, the Republican Party of India (Khobragade group) and the Congress together could have put the BJP in a defensive position in Chimur constituency. Here, the RPI (Khobragade) and the Congress together had garnered about 51 per cent votes while the winning BJP candidate had got 44 per cent votes. This time the RPI (Khobragade) has decided to field a candidate while the Congress may give up the seat in favour of the RPI. That means the RPI and RPI (Khobragade), led by Upendra Shinde, together
would give a distinct advantage to the BJP candidate.
Similarly, the Peasant and Workers Party (PWP), which is a part of the UF, may brighten the prospects of BJP-Sena candidates in a few select constituencies. An electoral alliance between the PWP and the Congress became impossible only for one constituency. PWP chief Datta Patil wanted the Congress to spare Colaba for his party. But the Congress could not have denied its senior leader and former Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Abdul Rehman Antulay.
Antulay had won Colaba seat in the last election with a very narrow margin against Sena's Anant Tare. While Antulay had 34 per cent votes, Tare was close behind with 33 per cent votes.
However, PWP candidate Datta Patil had about 30 per cent votes. If the Congress and the PWP had fought jointly, a defeat for the Sena was almost sure.
Together, the Congress and the PWP could have easily snatched Beed constituency from the BJP. Here, BJP has become more vulnerable with its sitting MP Rajni Patil defecting to
the Congress and her husband Ashok Patil likely to contest on a Congress ticket. In the last election, Rajni had got 43 per cent of the total votes against Congress's share of 35 per cent and PWP's 11 per cent.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
