NEW DELHI, March 28: With the confidence vote behind Atal Behari Vajpayee, the first ``really'' non-Congress Prime Minister has been legitimately installed on the Delhi gaddi for the first time in 50 years. The 1977, 1989, and 1996 experiments were led by former Congressmen.The vote has hastened the process towards a bipolar formation in the country with the BJP and the Congress being the two ends. The realignment will generate tremors which will not leave any party untouched -- and the process has begun.
The Telugu Desam and the National Conference have delinked themselves from the United Front and cast their lot with the BJP tonight. Last night, Chandrababu Naidu sent Vajpayee a message that the TDP MPs would vote for the BJP if there was a dire need; otherwise his party would prefer to abstain. But by 11 this morning, he had confirmed that his MPs would vote with the BJP.
Farooq Abdullah, who too had decided to follow in the TDP's footsteps, was reined in by his party MP Saifuddin Soz, who opposedthe NC chief's decision and forced the party to abstain.
The die has been cast for both the TDP and the NC and the natural corollary of their Saturday action is their entry into government. This, however, is likely to take place only after the Budget session of Parliament.
On the other end of the spectrum were Laloo Yadav and his one time sworn enemy Mulayam Singh Yadav sitting next to each other in the Lok Sabha all through the confidence vote as comrade in arms, enjoying each other's repartee and egging each other on to take on the BJP.
Mulayam also showed a surprising consideration towards Mayawati as she was letting off steam about the UP Speaker. He could be heard urging MPs to listen to her for what she was saying was right. The possibility of a Mulayam-Mayawati-Congress alliance in UP should be a cause for worry for the BJP. If there is one thing that can upset the party's future plans, it is this.
The coming days are expected to further soften the Left's stance towards the Congress andCongressmen are already talking of the return of 1971.
So far the BJP has concentrated on weaning away whole parties. Now it can be expected to break the ranks of smaller groups to consolidate itself and has been working on the RJD, Janata Dal, BSP and the RPI.
On the other hand, the centripetal forces are also working and there is a move, led by former Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar, to bring together the various streams of the 1989 Janata Dal. This would mean the reunification of the JD, RJD, Mulayam's SP, Devi Lal's Haryana Lok Dal, all of which add upto 50 MPs in the 12th Lok Sabha. The RJD and the JD have already made some progress in sinking their differences and the JD has withdrawn its candidate in favour of Laloo Yadav's party in Patna, where the election is still to take place.
The process is unlikely to leave the Congress untouched though there does not seem any likelihood of the party splitting as of now. Paradoxically the biggest ally of Atal Behari Vajpayee today is Sonia Gandhi. She isnot interested in trying to form a government herself, not at least for another year or so, and is unlikely to allow any one else in the Congress to do so.
The absence of a possible alternative arrangement to which disgruntled parties could gravitate, and the desire of the MPs to avoid another election at any cost, Vajpayee's government could come to enjoy a measure of stability.
The only problem is that accidents can take place and the BJP's allies are full of mavericks. That will also make the task of governance extremely difficult. It's interesting that Sonia Gandhi was in favour of a voice vote today and had a message conveyed to the BJP leaders citing a precedent that the Lok Sabha Speaker could go in for a voice vote if that was the sense of the House even if some demanded a division.
The emergence of Sonia Gandhi and the possibility of daughter Priyanka Vadra entering politics not ruled out blocks the chances of younger Congress leaders from making it to the top post for the next 20 years. Thatthey may have to play second fiddle to the family may be galling for many. But as of now, they will wait for her to make mistakes rather than split the party.
The Congress, which has been known for carefully worked out operations, botched up on the Speaker's election. It failed to anticipate the problems it would encounter in the Rajya Sabha elections. It fielded a defeated candidate Santosh Mohan Dev in Assam but he lost. In Andhra Pradesh, Venkata Ram Reddy lost by a whisker, giving the sixth seat to the TDP.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
