The first opinion poll conducted across Northern Ireland found that some 73 per cent of voters in Ulster said they would vote `Yes' in a referendum to be held next month on the peace deal signed last Saturday. The poll conducted by ICM and Harris for The Guardian and The Irish Times also found that 61 per cent of voters in the Republic of Ireland said they would vote `Yes' and that 81 per cent on the British mainland supported the deal.

The poll also found that among Catholics in Ulster some 90 per cent were in favour of the agreement and only three per cent opposed it. Among Protestants, who have expressed concern about some elements of the deal, a strong majority, some 62 per cent supported the peace deal and only 22 per cent were against it. The poll found greater support on both sides for moderatepolitical parties which had pushed the peace process through, with the Social Democratic and Labour Party claiming the largest number of Catholic voters and the Ulster Unionists the majority of Protestant voters.

The poll results come a day after Protestant politicians who oppose the peace deal began their campaign for a `No' vote. Reverend Ian Paisley, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which did not participate in the peace negotiations, said yesterday that it was a lie to claim that the peace deal would protect Ulster's place in the British union. He described the deal as ``the mother of all treacheries'' and said, ``... A `Yes' vote is a negative vote to dismantle the union. A `No' vote is a positive vote to safegua rd the union.'' He told mediapersons, the British and Irish governments would use ``every dirty trick in the book'' to manage a `Yes' vote. The DUP intends to deliver a copy of its analysis of the deal to every household in Northern Ireland.

The DUP's position is in characterand was announced even before the deal was finalised. While the loud and stentorian Paisley is considered the most popular politician in Ulster, his party's influence has declined, a fact the polls confirm. There are however other influential Unionist groupings that are divided over their support for the deal. The Orange Order, one of the most influential Protestant movements with a large working class support base, has said it cannot ``recommend'' the deal in its existing form to its supporters. The Orange Order, named after the Protestant King William of Orange, who defeated the Catholic King James II at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690, has been described as ``more than a political, social and religious movement. It is a state of mind.'' Despite 300 years of British dominance, and active discrimination against Catholics, the Order members still believe they are threatened by the `papists', whom they defeated.

The leaders of the Order want clarification from the government on a variety of issues includingthe decommissioning of arms, the early release of IRA prisoners and the reform of the largely Protestant Royal Ulster Constabulary, which counts many Orangemen among its officers. The Orange Order makes up almost a quarter of the Ulster Unionist party' council, which will take a vote on the deal this Saturday.

If the referendum is held as planned on May 22, there is just over a month to go. Opponents to the deal have made a start, but those campaigning for a `Yes' vote are hoping the desire for peace among the ordinary people of Ulster is strong and they will, as Tony Blair urged them, ``listen to those who want success''.