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Sunday, May 3, 1998

FM critical of global financial system

Chitra Subramaniam  
GENEVA, May 2: The Asian tigers turned domestic cats came to town this week to talk about their finances and the way ahead. Everybody agreed. Bankers rarely disagree. It was going to be alright. Keep repeating that. It was going to be alright, it was going to be alright, in the long run...

True to tradition, there were elaborate analyses, fancy charts with arrows pointing in all directions and numbers and equations falling out of every corner and pocket calculator. The bankers put Korea's needs to revamp its financial sector at $ 50 billion, Thailand needed $ 22 billion, Malaysia $ 10 billion and Indonesia's needs estimated at anything between $ 5 and $ 7.7 billion.

The bankers also agreed that after nine months of turmoil that began with the devaluation of the Thai bhat, the export-led recovery was nowhere in sight. But the biggest stumbling block to economic recovery in Asia was identified as the perilious health of the region's banking systems, the slow pace of reforms and resentent by some Asiancountries toward foreign investment in their banks. And then there was peripheral concern about crony-capitalism.

It was going to be alright. Next time they would get it right and would be prepared, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in its just concluded annual meeting in this city of gnomes (as Swiss bankers are called), financial experts and international civil servants. There would be checks and balances and an early warning radar in the form of a regional surveillance system christened ''ASEAN Plus'' which would alert us all about when to retrieve our money and run. The Mexicans must wonder why all this sounds painfully familiar and if ASEAN Plus is the name of a new drink.

Its a strange world the world of international trade and finance. Every financial crash is a ''correction'' and harsh trade sanctions against developing countries are nothing more than the multilateral trading system instilling "discipline". For human beings and the human drama these corrections bring in their wake, bankersgenerally have no time. Poor people are a drag on the economy.

India sent its new finance minister Yashwant Sinha. The best news around him was that he was not boastful about the country, just honourably hopeful. "India ..will consolidate the strenghts that have been built through economic reforms and address the weaknesses,'' our money manager told the bankers. "First and foremost we must recognise that though the crisis erupted in Asia it is in fact a symptom of a weakness inherent in the international financial system as a consequence of the rapid gobalisation of financial markets,'' he said.

Sinha reminded his audience that if recipient country financial sectors were weak, there were also weaknesses in the international financial system wich funnelled large volumes of short term funds into these countries.'' The burden sharing equation was in focus.

As for India, here were no promises of catching the stars and no false promises of dollars pouring into the country before you blinked -- a refreshingdeparture once again from what the international world has been hearing about India from Indians in the past few years. "India," he said, "will consolidate the strenghts that have been built thorough economic reforms and address the weaknesses.'' India's balance of payments was "comfortable" and foreign investment was being built up steadily and that the country had a long way to go especially in f infrastructure, Sinha said.

Financial sector reform is a tetchy subject and a debate on how to go about it has raged at the World Trade Orgnisation (WTO). There are no quick fix solutions and anyone will tell you that money wll not come in unless money feels secure. Good old common sense will tell you that you cannot borrow beyond what you and your system can sustain.

Developing countries have been saying that changes in legislative framework, supervision, competence and resources have to mesh together to flag-off a sound and responsible money market. The West says don't spoil the party, let us show you how todo it and more importantly, at what pace to to get there. Trade diplomats say the money market is a strange animal and trade theories evolved in the goods sector cannot be applied to the financial sector where high profits and benefits of capital accumulation would first benefit the money lender. It is worth remembering that raw statistics cannot capture life. Somewhere in the hustle and bustle of the ADB session, that message too was struggling to emerge.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.



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