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Friday, July 10, 1998

Bat not an eyelid just yet

Shefali Misra  
The government is being rightly grilled for needling China about its nuclear tests. It has done clear and avoidable damage to bilateral relations. Yet this has little bearing on the new cooperation between America and China in South Asia. That is the result of American pique and an effort to put India on notice about how things will go in the region if it refuses to play ball.

China is no passive party to this new partnership whose dimensions are larger than the South Asian situation. But given Clinton's inclinations this coming together on India's tests would have happened, as it did, on American initiative regardless of whether or not India had upset China.

China's position has long been that sovereign countries must do what they see fit for their security and territorial integrity. It could hardly be otherwise considering how vulnerable it has itself been to external sermonising. It was India's shrieking about China that prompted Beijing to make equally sharp noises back. Now, of course, things haveacquired a momentum of their own with Washington's assiduous courting of Beijing.

American affections are an irresistible prize for China. Obviously it revels in the superpower status Washington seems intent upon bestowing on it. America will probably repent this policy at leisure, but for now State Department officials are crowing at India's discomfiture.

In the past it was only New Delhi which was so anxious to tom-tom its friendly relations with China despite the Chinese yielding not an inch on border talks. As somebody pointed out, China has simply played along with this assertion. For its part, it would never be so effusive when there was no progress on the ground on the agenda it wanted to advance with India.But as Washington has swung from a China policy of containment to all-out engagement, so New Delhi went from exaggerated claims of normal relations to needless bellicosity before getting into a panic about its own recklessness.

And yet Indian restraint post-Pokharan might only have won itmatching restraint from Beijing till the Clinton visit. Then, China would probably have gone along with Clinton the better to ingratiate itself with America. A sense of proportion must remain. The US-China closeness is a fragile thing, and exaggerated in any case. China may associate itself with joint statements but it is hardly certain to become party to specific initiatives. Still, there is hardly room for complacency.

The American public may have misgivings about Clinton's obsequious engagement with China and its suspicions about his reasons. But Clinton has the support of a large part of the US foreign policy establishment. His superficial tough talk in China was positively projected by the media. The huge turnout of Chinese to greet him went down well at home. Lucky as ever, he has turned his China adventure to advantage for now.

As likely as not this policy will be moderated, if not reversed, by a subsequent US administration. Not that later American Presidents would not need to ``engage'' China.But the conflict of interests between the two is too fundamental to be papered over for long.

Dismaying as it is, India can only protest at this cosiness insofar as it directly and gratuitously impinges on it. The government was right to react as sharply as it did to the US and China appointing themselves joint purveyors of security in South Asia. But it needs to make its resistance convincing. That, among other things, is why it should be seen to be in no hurry to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

The US is softening up towards New Delhi while keeping up pressure against deployment and for unconditional acceptance of the non-proliferation regime. The two countries are essentially engaged in a battle of wills. India must not blink. It must aim to put relations back on track, but not at the cost of much of what the tests were about. It should tell the Americans that they can forget about Indian cooperation on their cherished non-proliferation regime if they mean to join hands with China to containIndia and appoint Beijing the arbiter of peace in South Asia or indeed fail to sufficiently acknowledge India's new status in practical terms.

The crucial thing is for India to remember that for once it holds some of the cards. Washington cannot make trouble in its neighbourhood and still demand compliance with its aims. India should not sign the CTBT, the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty or any other non-proliferation treaty till all its major concerns are addressed. What is more, these concerns should be seen not to be narrowly self-serving but consistent with its moral stance.

Demanding the end of discrimination on several counts is consistent, but not a brazen seeking of benefits for itself. The fact of the matter is that, for all the eagerness now on display to sign the CTBT, signing it would be more than just domestically disadvantageous. Even if all India's terms for signing were in fact morally upright, the world would sniff deal-making. This can be avoided only by India holding out for as long asit takes for the correctness of its position to be acknowledged to its satisfaction.

Realpolitik might have dictated quick signing. In fact it does not. Things have broadly gone as India wanted them to go. As noted so often, America is so irritated precisely because the US and other nuclear powers have been so thoroughly exposed. Clinton craves a ``less unpredictable'' government in New Delhi. (It is a wonder that the BJP has failed to play up at home America's desire to see it out of power.) Why would India wish to relieve this agony just as the world got focused on the nuclear powers' outrageous double standards? It is logical to wait till all the nuclear powers are more willing to deal with it on an equal footing, acknowledging its stance.

True to form, America has betrayed its inability to inflict even a little pain on its own firms. Its sanctions are soft. Marginalising even these is in India's hands, if only the government would see the sense of opening up the economy and raising the costs to thosewho want to punish it. India's demonisation would continue. But America's nuclear grandstanding does not wash today precisely because of what India has done.

It would be totally perverse to now lose the will to stay the course. That would only help India's detractors to take the moral high ground by implying Indian deal-making. And then they would magnanimously condescend to restore respectability to a repentant New Delhi.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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