There are many factors that lead one to believe that the people of Uttarakhand will have to remain content with the illusion that what is promised to attract votes will translate into reality. To begin with, the very survival of a BJP government in UP is dependent upon Uttarakhand remaining a part of UP. Out of a total strength of 425 MLAs, 19 are from Uttarakhand. Out of these, 17 belong to the BJP. The BJP has 172 MLAs in the present Vidhan Sabha. If a new state is created, their strength will come down to 155 in a House of 406. The BJP government is todaysurviving on the support of defectors. The combined strength of the BJP and its allies is currently 225. This will be reduced to 208 with the creation of a new state.

For a majority, 204 MLAs in a House of 406 are required. Just six MLAs breaking away would reduce the government to a minority. Currently 41 of the MLAs are defectors. Past experience has shown that such people are not strong on commitment or principles. Further, a petition is pending before the Supreme Court seeking disqualification of MLAs who have defected from the BSP and are currently ministers in the Kalyan Singh government. Without the Uttarakhand MLAs, the government will fall if they are disqualified. This will simultaneously accelerate the collapse of the BJP government in Delhi.

There would also be long-term implications. The possibilities of the BJP improving on its current strength after the next Assembly elections are indeed remote. Due to the incumbency and other factors such as performance, the BJP's strength would go down.Will the BJP commit hara-kiri? The BJP appears to be in a Catch-22 situation. If a new state is created, the BJP-led government in UP runs the risk of being ousted. If it does not honour its promises for whatever reason, the people of Uttarakhand will not forgive them at the next elections. The present government would be in danger and the party's future jeopardised.

Other factors have also been taken into account while posturing publicly that a new state will be created. Uttar-akhand comprises two divisions of Kumaon and Garhwal. The criteria for statehood are distinctive linguistic, racial, or cultural identities. There are no such commonalities between Garhwal and Kumaon. They are two distinct identities. The demand for a new state is greater in Garhwal than in Kumaon. The latter is more prosperous than Garhwal. Over the centuries, the two have always been rivals and creating a new state may sow the seeds for a further separation between Garhwal and Kumaon.

This antagonism and rivalry creates its ownproblems even now. For instance, where should the capital be located? Nainital is not acceptable to Garhwal. Dehra Dun is not acceptable to Kumaon. A team selected the remote town of Garsain, tucked away in the hills on the border of Garhwal and Kumaon. Its development would call for massive expenditure. The same would apply to any other town or location acceptable to the inhabitants of both the divisions.

Creating a new state poses several problems, both political and economic. It would strengthen the demand for a further division of UP into four or five states and inspire demands for statehood from other regions. Another major problem is that of the boundaries of the proposed new state. So that the state can become somewhat economically viable, there is a demand that other areas not currently part of Kumaon or Garhwal be included. The addition of Haridwar, which is not a part of Garhwal, in the draft sent to the President, has already created a major controversy. There is a division on the issue withinthe BJP itself. The government will not be able to overlook this. Persistence will result in turmoil. At the same time, the exclusion of Haridwar at this stage will not be acceptable to the Uttarakhandis. The inclusion of Udham Singh Nagar in the proposed state has already brought about a major problem with an important ally, the Akalis. A resolution of these conflicting claims and demands on the one side and intention on the other seems irreconcilable.

The region is extremely backward. There is an acute shortage of water. In several villages, the people have to walk long distances to bring back a couple of bucketfuls. Small bridges are required all over to link neighbouring villages that are nevertheless cut off by hill features. The state of the roads is deplorable, as it is in all of Uttar Pradesh. There are no industries in the region worth the name. Those which were started with loans or other assistance have closed down. The only viable sectors are tourism, floriculture, horticulture and education. Tofully exploit even these limited options, the existing infrastructure will need to be upgraded with massive investments. The new state will not have resources or revenue generation possibilities. The Centre will face problems in making appropriate allocations while meeting the demands of other states that have not been accommodated so far in respect of very urgent development and infrastructure projects.

There are other problems also which would need to be settled before a new state is formed. The major ones would relate to the sharing of water and power, division of assets and the administrative setup. One does not know whether even basic preliminary studies have been undertaken in these areas.Given all this, it looks like the people of Uttarakhand are being taken for a ride. It is unfair to keep them under false illusions. They are innocent folk and take assurances and promises at face value. Instead of cosmetics, the government, with the active involvement of the main political parties, should pay moreserious and urgent attention to finding a way out of this situation. If not, yet another peaceful area can become disturbed.

The writer is a former governor of Uttar Pradesh