WASHINGTON, Aug 29: The crashing rouble and the sinking yen may have taken global markets on a tailspin but the abject failure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in tackling the turmoil is much more worrisome, equity analysts here say. At a time when US Congress is still debating whether to release funds due to the IMF, a bigger issue involved is if the Bretton Woods twins (IMF and World Bank) have the skills to tackle problems in east Asia and Russia.The view gaining ground is that IMF's skills are honed to tackle problems in countries with serious fiscal deficits and not in nations where private industry over-borrowed and used the funds in speculative real estate, the analysts say.
Moreover, James Grant of the Grant's interest rate observer pointed out that against a 1:14 price earning (p/e) ratio on Wall Street, it is currently at 1:22.
This is unsustainable as same was the case in the east Asian countries before the big bust came along, he says while pointing to the high growth path chalked out by Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia. The week saw rapid downturn of the world markets with Wall Street falling prey to selling pressure over the rouble fall as investors began speculating a cut in US interest rates to ease the strains hitting markets and economies everywhere.
This is the most dangerous world crisis since the oil shocks of the 1970s. "For the first time in my professional life the chances of a 1930s-style slump have to be taken seriously," said HSBC group chief economist Roger Bottle in London.Commodity prices too remained under severe pressure, feeding economists' fears of deflation, a hallmark of the world depression of the 1930s.Latin American countries are heavily dependent on their commodity exports and their currencies and economies are under intense strain.
Analysts feel that IMF prescriptions in Asia and Russia have only made matters worse and it is now upto the US and President Bill Clinton to salvage something from the rubble of economic meltdown. Douglas Bereuter, chairman of the house international relations sub-committee on the near east and south Asia, says Clinton's Russia policy is based on wishful thinking and blames IMF for failing to retrieve the situation after mobilising 23 million dollars to aid the country.
As far as Russia is concerned, Americans are worried that once president Boris Yeltsin hands over reins to successor Victor Chernomydrin he would be left with no option but to impose capital controls, price checks and other measures, considered anathema to IMF and World Bank.
The fact that Russia removed capital controls on IMF advice which resulted in a few Russians transferring an estimated 100 billion dollars abroad is pinching U.S. analysts even more. Though some perceive Moscow's predicament as an opportune moment to and weaken it militarily, the general perception is that Washington would have to bail out Russia or face the consequences on its own markets over the days to come.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.