Poll allies from 1996, the DMK and the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) continue to be part of the United Front (UF) but the DMK seems to be reaching out to the BJP in an effort to save its Government from the marauding influence of the AIADMK, while the TMC's G K Moopanar prefers a Congress-led Government at the Centre. The TMC's view is fortified by the Left parties' inclination to pave way for a Congress-led Government, which they consider is the lesser evil as compared to the BJP. However, with opinion divided in the UF, confusion pervades, with each constituent chalking out the best option for itself.

Despite different goals, the DMK and TMC continue to keep their alliance in Tamil Nadu afloat. However, a break will be inevitable if they have to choose between the BJP and the Congress as anational ally. It would require considerable sagacity to keep their alliance going in Tamil Nadu in the event of the two opting for different stable-mates at the Centre.

The picture on the other side is even more chaotic. The AIADMK's now-on now-off relationship with the BJP has even got her allies protesting. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Marumalarchi DMK (MDMK) and the Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress (TRC) are willing to throw their lot with the BJP at the Centre but are reluctant to announce a break in ties with the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.

These AIADMK allies have announced that they would continue to back the Vajpayee Government and that they wanted the AIADMK to continue backing it. The PMK and MDMK have even struck a note of rebellion by declaring that they would continue to back the BJP Government even if Jayalalitha withdrew her party's support. The TRC has also made it clear that it would not pull out of the Government.

However, they are willing to wound but afraid to strike, when it comes totheir relationship with the AIADMK. Obviously, for the TRC, it is difficult to give up a good portfolio like Petroleum. These allies, too, are in a dilemma to choose between the BJP and the AIADMK as their future poll partner, just as the UF partners have their own choices.

It is thus that the MDMK leader Vaiko and the PMK founder-leader Dr S Ramadoss soft-pedal their parties' stand regarding the AIADMK and do not take their relationship with the AIADMK to the point of no-return, even while making it clear to the BJP leadership that they stand by it.

The misgivings of the MDMK, PMK and the TRC regarding the AIADMK's repeated threats against the Vajpayee Government can be traced to the political formations at the Centre. These three parties do not find a place in AICC president Sonia Gandhi's long-term strategy to form a Congress-led Government.

The perceived softness of the MDMK and PMK for the LTTE, which has been identified by the Special Investigation Team (SIT) as responsible for the assassinationof Rajiv Gandhi, has come in the way of any understanding with the Congress. Sonia Gandhi is also upset over the way in which Vazhapadi K Ramamurthy, who launched a party (TRC) in the name of Rajiv Gandhi, has teamed up with the BJP and joined its Government. With the Congress doors not likely to open for these three parties, they prefer to be within the security provided by the BJP, especially when lucrative ministerships are at stake.

Consequently, the fluid political situation has thrown up the curious spectacle of these three parties trying to please the BJP on one hand, even if that means displeasure for the Poes Garden lady; and on the other hand, humouring Jayalalitha to keep the AIADMK-led combine going.

Jayalalitha, on her part, is a prominent BJP ally but is more busy these days trying to establish lines of communication with the AICC leaders and usher in an alternative Government. Her only ally in this venture is Subramanian Swamy.

The decisive moment when parties will have to stand up and becounted will come when the Congress makes its moves to form a Government at the Centre and the AIADMK supports the Congress. If and when that happens, the AIADMK could gain some at the Centre and lose some in Tamil Nadu.