The current fiscal, in the first five months, has seen only 12 public issues raising a meagre Rs 1,402 crore, compared to 62 issues aggregating Rs 3,061 crore in full 1997-98 and 753 issues for Rs 11,648 crore in full 1996-97, according to a study done by Prithvi Haldea of Prime Database.

A significant, but worrying, feature, according to Prime, is the near-total absence of equity. Public issues of equity at Rs 182 crore have accounted for only 13 per cent of the five-month period's total mobilisation. These have successively been going down from a high 100 per cent (Rs 13,312 crore) in 1994-95.

The most adversely affected are the corporates. Only Rs 83 crore representing 6 per cent of the total funds raised in the five-month period of the current fiscal have been from the manufacturing sector, down froma high 83 per cent in 1994-95.

On the other hand, financial institutions and banks, as per Prime, have continued to dominate the market. Their offerings at Rs 1318 crore constitute 94 per cent of the five month period's total amount, up from a meagre 4 per cent in 1994-95. The government continues to monopolise the primary market, with a 93 per cent share in five month period's total mobilisation, up from 9 per cent in 1994-95.

According to Prime, it is now for the 14th month in succession that the primary market has witnessed an extremely low level of activity in public issues. Since July 1997, there have been only 38 public issues. While August 1998 had 1 public issue, the earlier monthly figures have also been equally dismal: July (1), June (5), May (3), April (2), March (2), February (0), January (4), December 1997 (6), November (4), October (4), September (1), August (3) and July (2).

Initial public offerings (IPOs), in specific, have been badly hit. IPOs, which are essentially first public issuesfrom unlisted companies, had already fallen from a high of 1,350 in 1995-96 to only 51 in 1997-98. These are now down to only 7 in the first five months of fiscal 1998-99 mobilising a meagre sum of Rs 124 crore.

Given the state of the market and economy, Haldea projects that the balance period of 1998-99 may also be dismal. One of the points is the number of public issue documents filed with SEBI for clearance. From an average of 87 documents per month in the January-December 1996 period, the figure fell to only 7 per month in the January-December 1997 period and is now down to only 3 per month in the January-August 1998 period.

It said rescue act, if any, may come only from some bank issues and from materialisation of the disinvestment programme. ``What we may continue to see is some amount of debt mobilisation,'' it said.