NEW DELHI, Sept 9: India and Pakistan will announce a breakthrough in their stalemated bilateral dialogue when Prime Ministers AB Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif meet on September 23 in New York, on the fringes of the 52nd session of the United Nations General Assembly.The formula is expected to revolve around a separate discussion of issues already listed on the agenda: Peace and security and confidence-building measures and Jammu & Kashmir. The remaining six issues, which include Siachen, trade & investment, people-to-people contact, etc, will be discussed separately.
The agreement was hammered out in Durban, South Africa, where Foreign Secretaries from both countries met at least five times.
Actually, both sides promised not to tell their respective people about the agreement, a request believed to have been expressly made by the Pakistanis who felt they ``needed time'' to sell it back home. Aziz, however, spelt out the broad parameters of the deal as soon as he landed in Islamabad.
The announcement on September 23, one day before Vajpayee speaks at the UNGA, is aimed at calming international opinion which is worried over the possibility of a nuclear flare-up between the neighbours over Kashmir.
In his UN speech, the Prime Minister is also likely to reiterate India's determination about adhering to a moratorium on testing, which is another way of saying that New Delhi has no problems with signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
The Indo-Pak agreement, meanwhile, may incorporate another interesting clause : Islamabad is keen on fixing a time-table to the dialogue, especially over Kashmir.
The deal will be projected as a ``win-win situation'' for both sides. Pakistan wins by getting India to accept its single-minded focus on Kashmir as the ``core'' issue, which, therefore, needs to be discussed separately from other lesser issues.
India wins too, by enlarging the subject of the group to include ``peace and security'' and not allowing it to be limited to Kashmir -- a position it has long been insisting on. India's proposal on a `no first use' pact will have to be discussed by Pakistan, even though Islamabad has already rejected it. The perceived nuclear instability in the sub-continent and possible confidence-building measures to allay those fears will form an important part of the discussion.
Such a proposal for a bilateral deal is actually not new : It was proposed by Islamabad as early as June, but rejected outright by India because it did not want to give primary legitimacy to Kashmir. By accepting it three months later, New Delhi is being accused by some foreign policy analysts of letting slip the momentum of dialogue in the immediate aftermath of its nuclear tests, and only recovering it later, under international pressure.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.