India's Western neighbourhood is lurching towards a dangerous conflict, but New Delhi has little to offer in terms of a policy response.

In recent weeks, Indian officials have had consultations with Iran, Russia and the Central Asian Republics on the expanding conflict in southwest Asia. What may be lacking, however, is a coherent Indian strategy to limit the strategic advance that Pakistan has made in Afghanistan and constrain Islamabad's efforts to build new leverages against Iran and Central Asia.

Given the complex situation that New Delhi faces, it is not surprising that the Indian strategic community is divided. Some call for a pro-active policy that could involve diplomatic activism to contain the conflict. Others call for substantive Indian support to the opponents of Taliban and assistance to Iran in managing the major securitythreat it faces.

At the other end of the spectrum are those who believe that Pakistan will get caught up in its own game in Afghanistan. They suggest the Pakistani victory may be short-lived. Former Foreign Secretary J N Dixit observes that Pakistan will pay for the sins of promoting the Taliban in terms of deepening its own internal sectarian and ethnic conflict.

``The dominance of the Taliban in Afghanistan would heighten the fissiparous tendencies that exist in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan'', Dixit said.

Analysts here argue that the Pakistani military establishment, despite its severe internal crisis, may now be close to fullfilling its dream of controlling access to Central Asia from the Indian Ocean. It is determined to dash Iranian aspirations to emerge as the gateway to Central Asia that could transport the petroleum riches of the region.

Besides pushing Iran out of the Great Game in Central Asia, according to diplomatic sources here, Pakistan is now threatening thevery future of the Islamic revolution in Iran by propping a Sunni fundamentalist Taliban against Shia Iran.

In response to the killing of its diplomats when the Taliban overran northern Afghanistan, Iran has amassed over 200,000 troops on its borders. Iranian leaders have demanded that the Taliban adopt a more conciliatory course, but it is evident Teheran's patience is wearing thin. There is speculation that a wider war in the region could break out any time.

Teheran is increasingly concerned at the growing acts of terrorism in Iran and evidence that these are being perpetrated by an Iranian dissident group called Mujahideen-e-Khalq. Media reports indicate that Pakistan and the Taliban gave shelter and resources to the splinter group after their recent victories in Afghanistan.

By controlling Afghanistan through the Taliban, Pakistan is at once threatening the security, territorial integrity and ideological legitimacy of Iran. The full implications of the Pakistani and Saudi backing to the Taliban inimposing its own brand of extremist Sunni Islam over Afghanistan and its prosecution of the Persian-speaking and Shia minorities in Afghanistan are beginning to come into view.

Besides pushing Iran into a corner, the Pakistani adventure in Afghanistan is likely to sharpen sectarian tensions throughout the region. The Shia-Sunni violence that has rocked Pakistan in recent years is now being exported by Islamabad raising the spectre of a grand religious destabilisation across the length and breadth of the Islamic world.

For India, the concerns are many. Its hopes to sustain an autonomous and friendly Afghanistan have taken a beating. As Pakistan and Taliban consolidate their hold over Afghanistan, the independence of Kabul could be a major casualty, altering profoundly the geostrategic balance in the subcontinent.

The weakening of Iran, which in recent years has emerged as an important partner of India, could reinforce the negative trends in the regional balance. Indian hopes to gain access to CentralAsia through Iran may now become less realisable.

More immediately, as Pakistan strengthens its position in South-West and Central Asia, it could dramatically step up its support for militancy in Kashmir. An Afghanistan controlled by proxy by Pakistan would ``serve as a springboard for interference in Kashmir'', cautions Dixit. Pakistan's gains in the region could undermine the prospects for Indian energy security. New Delhi's hopes of gaining a share of Central Asian natural gas, for which India's appetite is expected to be unlimited in the future, will have to be put on hold.

More fundamental, analysts here warn the tensions among Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan could become a wider conflict in the Persian Gulf that could push up oil prices and affect the Indian economy in a significant way.