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Wednesday, September 23, 1998

Clinton keeps date with Sharif; Vajpayee gives him a miss

Chidanand Rajghatta  
WASHINGTON, Sept 22: Conflicting strategic interests and domestic snafus have once again muddied the waters of Indo-US relations amid high expectations arising from Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee first visit to American shores as India's premier.

The lack of any decisive wrap-up in the Jaswant Singh-Strobe Talbott talks and President Clinton's domestic hassles which has virtually paralysed the administration have, among other things, put a hold on the grand deal -- involving announcement of New Delhi signing the CTBT and the US waiving sanctions -- that was expected to have been worked out by now.

Instead, even more problems have surfaced between the two sides, although Prime Minister Vajpayee is expected to maintain form and make a speech outlining India's emerging nuclear doctrine, including New Delhi's informal commitment to the nuclear test ban treaty. The gulf between the two sides is apparent in their inability and reluctance to bring about a meeting between President Clinton and Prime MinisterVajpayee, although both were to be in New York for the UN General Assembly.

The Indian Prime Minister arrives in New York only on Wednesday morning, hours after President Clinton leaves the city on Tuesday. Clinton however met Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Monday. Normally sensitive to the slightest affront, Indian officials say this time that New Delhi did not seek a meeting for Prime Minister Vajpayee with the President. Clinton's meeting with Sharif was not something that was of concern to India, they added.

Officials also said there was no point having such a high-level meeting (between Clinton and Vajpayee) unless things have been thrashed out at the lower levels. Vajpayee will however have a luncheon meeting with Sharif in New York on Wednesday. US officials offered a different spin on the developments, suggesting that the Clinton-Sharif meeting came about because Washington has progressed further along the negotiation track with Islamabad on several fronts, particularly the test bantreaty, than it has with India.

The four specific issues Washington is discussing with India and Pakistan are the test ban treaty, the treaty halting fissile material production, restraining nuclear technology transfers and production and deployment of nuclear weapons. Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed told reporters in New York that Islamabad was willing to sign CTBT the moment Washington waived economic sanctions. ``We cannot take a decision as long as there is this atmosphere of coercion, and economic sanctions,'' he added.

However, sources said President Clinton did not make any firm commitment about sanctions -- which is in the hands of the Congress -- although Washington has a handle on Pakistan because of the latter's perilous economic situation. In fact, some US officials expect Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to announce Islamabad's decision to sign the CTBT in his speech to the UN General Assembly on Wednesday because Islamabad's parlous economic position needs urgent attention.

The dealwith India is proving more difficult to clinch because it does not hinge only on sanctions waiver. New Delhi is weighing a whole range of strategic concerns in the long term and engaging far more deeply with Washington, sources said. The clutch area, sources said, was India's concept of minimum credible deterrence, especially in production and deployment of nuclear weapons.

Despite this, Prime Minister Vajpayee in his address to the UN, is expected to declare India's binding commitment to the CTBT, though he won't announce the signing. In Washington meanwhile, Deputy Secretary Strobe Talbott and special envoy Jaswant Singh are meeting again for the sixth time on Tuesday evening to narrow the last areas of difference between the two sides.

Their already complex talks have been aggravated by the bizarre political developments in Washington that has diluted the power and affected the focus of the Clinton administration. One of the tracks leading to the Indo-US deal was to have been a legislative move in theCongress which would have given President Clinton a sanctions waiver authority so that his mandarins could use it as a carrot to draw India and Pakistan into an agreement.

But thanks to the explosive political situation here because of the sex scandal, the Congress is finding it difficult to focus on this issue. Besides, the Republican hardliners are now loathe to give any authority on any issue to a man they see as a lame-duck President without any moral authority to rule the country.

On Tuesday morning, Jaswant Singh was in the Capitol meeting Jesse Helms, the powerful Senator who lords it over foreign relations issues on the Hill, along with other members of the international relations committee. In a situation where the executive has been rendered weak and infirm because of the sex scandal, the American Congress has become even more powerful. Singh has always been dealing with the administration and his foray to the Hill is his first, a sign of the changing atmosphere in Washington.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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