That's to the extent that anything at all can be seen about the secrecy-cloaked prize process.

The Norwegian Nobel committee reveals next to nothing about the process, confirming only the number of nominees made by the February 1 deadline -- a record 139 this year. Even that number isn't definitive, because committee members themselves can make nominations later.

Some nominees become known because whoever nominated them will announce it but others remain as close-mouthed as the committee.

This year's prize will be announced on October 16 and is worth 975,000 dollars.

Havel is a confirmed nominee and may have a strong chance, for reasons both pleasant and unpleasant.

Giving the prize to the noted human rights champion could be a way for the prize to mark this year's 50th anniversary of the United Nations human rights charter. Plus, Havel has had serious health problems recently and the prize is not awarded posthumously.

Previous prize-winners are among those who can make nominations and 1996 laureate Jose Ramos Horta has proposed the approximately three million Colombian children in the movement trying to end the country's three-decade-long civil war.

Norway's NTB news agency, an astute observer of the prizes, has suggested that a top contender may be someone involved in the Northern Ireland peace process. It is one of the few notable successes in peace efforts this year.

In recent years the tendency has been towards not giving the prize to mediators, such as in 1994 when the prize went to Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, his foreign minister Shimon Peres and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat for the Middle East peace accord. The Norwegian mediators who brokered the agreement were not included.

Giving the peace prize to Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, Ulster Unionist David Trimble and Social Democrat John Hume would certainly not be any less controversial.

Another way to honor the human rights charter could be to give the prize to the international war crimes tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, an award which could be interpreted as a boost to the work for a permanent international war crimes court. Last summer, it was agreed to establish such a court, but key countries like the United States and China opposed it.

Other candidates who have been among the favourites the last few years, and are thought to be on the list again, are Kurdish activist Leyla Zana, who was just given another two years on top of the 15-year sentence she is serving in a Turkish jail, and Chinese dissidents Wang Dan and Wei Jingsheng.

Organizations that could be honoured include the medical charity Doctors Without Borders and the Salvation Army, both of which have been mentioned among the front-runners for several years.

As usual, a long list of presidents, religious leaders and charities are also on the list, such as the presidents of South Korea, Kim Dae-Jung, and Taiwan, Lee Teng-Hui.