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Angana Parekh
NEW DELHI, Oct 10: In its desperate gamble, the BJP wants to play safe. So Sahib Singh Verma is not to be inducted into the Union Cabinet for now, nor are Sushma Swaraj's portfolios, Communications and Information & Broadcasting, to be filled until after the November Assembly elections.
According to reliable sources, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee may either keep the two ministries himself or ask someone else to assume additional charge.
Sources said that Swaraj, who was reluctant to become chief minister at a time when the government's popularity is at an all-time low, was assured by the BJP leadership today that in case the party could not form a government in the state, she would be given her portfolios back. As a consequence, she may not resign from the Lok Sabha now even if she contests the Assembly elections.
Coming as it does only 45 days before the Delhi elections, the changeover is viewed as a last-ditch attempt to save face by the BJP which fears it will not fare well in the polls. Theelections in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram are crucial for the party in more ways than one. It is feared that the Congress will make a bid to form an alternative government at the Centre if the BJP fares badly and loses its governments in Delhi and Rajasthan to the Congress.
The BJP leadership felt that Verma was increasingly being perceived as a symbol of bad governance. Since summer, Delhi has been afflicted by the mustard oil controversy, power cuts, water shortages and sharply deteriorating law and order situation. To top it all came the onion problem and Verma's controversial statement that poor people don't eat onions.
Verma finally became too much of a liability despite his hold over the Jat votebank and the BJP reversed its earlier decision not to project any leader as the chief ministerial candidate in the four poll states.
But the party will now have to contend with the repercussions -- not just in Delhi but Rajasthan as well. There is now a possibility that a similar demandcould surface in Rajasthan where there are doubts over whether Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat can lead the party to victory.
In fact, it remains to be seen whether Verma's removal will affect the BJP's prospects in Rajasthan, which also has pockets where Jats are electorally significant. During the Lok Sabha elections, Verma had been asked to campaign not just in Delhi but also in the Jat belts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.
The BJP leadership had sounded out Swaraj nearly two months ago about taking over from Verma but she had refused. So had former Delhi chief minister Madan Lal Khurana. Apparently what ``saved'' Khurana was the fact that Swaraj was a woman. The BJP leadership's calculation is that it would be better to pit another woman against the Congress's Sheila Dikshit.
Swaraj's neutrality was another important factor that weighed with the BJP high command. The Delhi unit is vertically divided into Khurana's Punjabi lobby and Verma's Jat lobby; it was feared that ifKhurana was made chief minister, Jat passions would be further inflamed. The party leadership obviously felt that the damage of keeping Verma on was greater than the risk of alienating the Jats.
Past experience has shown that last-minute changes in leadership have not worked. The Congress tried that in Punjab by replacing the chief minister just before the state assembly elections. But the Akali Dal won hands down. Similarly, Rajiv Gandhi had installed Madhavsinh Solanki as Gujarat's chief minister barely a month before the elections, but the Congress lost.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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