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Monday, November 9, 1998

Soaring in adversity

Chidanand Rajghatta  
In about two years, Bill Clinton will relinquish the most powerful office in the world. He will be only 53, an astonishingly young age for a politician to retire, an age at which most politicos in India are considered greenhorns.

There are examples in 19th century American history of retiring Presidents returning to active politics -- in one instance as a Senator -- or moving on to more sublime calling, like becoming the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. But more often, they fade gently into the night as senior statesmen.

Half a dozen among the 41 presidents can be said to have earned the appellation great, but the jury won't be out on Clinton for many more years despite his yearning to leave a grand legacy.

However, one thing is certain. Clinton will go down as one of the most adroit and consummate politicians the US has ever produced. This is a man with a peerless political sense whose exceptional skill and intuition has saved him and elevated him where it would have felled lesser pols. Tuesday'selectoral surprise is a prime example of his masterly cunning, an incredible feat of parlaying devastating rout into a modest enough defeat to make it appear like a victory.

After all, if you look at the tally at the end of the day, it was the Republicans who won the elections. They still control the Senate and the House, not to speak of the majority of governorships across the country. And over the six years Clinton has been President, Democratic Party's strength in the 435-member House slid from 267 to 206 before it was bumped up slightly now to 211.

In the Senate, they have waned from 57 to 45. All told, roughly 20 percent of the Democrats' Congressional strength has dissipated under Clinton. In the same period, Republicans have grabbed 500 state legislative seats from Democrats and captured the mayorship of the nation's two largest cities.

Still, if you read the headlines and saw the breastbeating among the conservatives this week, you would have thought the Republicans had been buried in alandslide. The Democrats lost, but somehow, Clinton won -- and his name was not even on the ballot!

Small wonder there is a school of thought which suggests Clinton would do well to start an international school of politics, where aspiring politicos can learn spin management, social theory and statecraft, not to speak of a spot of witchcraft.

Politicians are known to create illusions before the elections, but sustaining it after the polls requires magical powers. There are also many who now feel that if the Americans repeal their 21st Amendment, which bars a President from serving more than two terms, Clinton may be good till 2008 or 2012.

How does he do it? Political minnows across the world must be asking. Simply put, Clinton's victory is a triumph of issues over values. While the Republicans were hyperventilating over preserving higher moral and ethical standards in the country, Clinton just concentrated on securing a decent standard of life for the American people.

Of all the pre-election surveys,the most eloquent was one which showed respondents pick the better party to solve their everyday problems. Democrats were preferred by huge margins -- 20 points or more -- on issues like education, social security and medicare. The Republicans were seen as the more `moral' force, but when it came to `caring' about people and understanding `the needs and problems of families', the Democrats scored.

Clinton may have had problems keeping his libido aside, but the American electorate had no such problems. In several exit polls, voters said Clinton's peccadillos did not influence their ballots. They were more concerned about more mundane issues -- like the fact that a dollar invested in the stock market when Clinton came to power is today worth $ 10.

Clinton read the tea leaves correctly. His efforts in the weeks prior to the polls were concentrated on getting the onions and salt on the supply line, so to say, and not in deflecting attention from the Lewinsky affair. In fact, every time he appeared in public,he looked like a whipped puppy.

But he did not yelp about being hauled over the coals -- except in his infamous August 17 speech. Time and again, he returned to the workaday problems of the people and spoke incessantly about it. It turns out now that he may not have had problems with the media -- much more than the Republicans -- jawboning endlessly about the sex scandal.

The more people tired of it, the more it helped him. Yes, in the end, the sex scandal may actually have helped Clinton more than it helped the Republicans.

The President's repeated triumphs in the face of adversity has engendered the term Clintonism to explain his mercurial politics. His conservative critics say it's an expression that describes a style of politics rather than any philosophical moorings. Six years into his presidency, Clinton is now justly famous for his ideological oscillations that span the spectrum.

In his political peregrinations, Clinton has been both a sponge and an amoeba. No idea is too extreme or exclusiveto be soaked up if it is useful. And no political space is too difficult to occupy. A decade ago, such ideological vagrancy may have been scandalous. Not today. And that is where the Republicans appear to have missed the trick. And so what does the Clinton `victory' augur for the subcontinent?

Although the shadow of impeachment still hangs on his head, there are signs that it will all be over with a minor rap on the knuckles before the year is up. An uplifted Clinton is certain to expend more energy on a region he firmly believes the US has neglected.

Besides, there may be dividends to be had. The test ban treaty remains a high priority for him in a checklist of international do's that he believes is his ticket to greatness. Last month, the President spent nearly 70 hours spread over nine days personally supervising and talking to the Israeli and Palestinian delegations at the Wye Resort, in the end shanghaiing the two sides into a reluctant and uncertain deal. As the deadline for the entry into force ofthe CTBT nears in September, India (and Pakistan) can expect similar pressure.

Clinton's political legerdemain also breathes fresh life into Al Gore, his putative Democrat successor. Gore himself is a considerably weighty non-proliferation hawk who has over the years turned the screws on Russia to stop technological aid to India. With the Clinton-Gore team back firmly in saddle for two more years, New Delhi can expect plenty of heat on the non-proliferation front.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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