Divided into two by the Narmada -- with Bharuch, Waghra and Jambusar on one side and Ankleshwar, Jhagadia, Dediapada and Mangrol on the other -- the Bharuch constituency's electorate seems curiously apathetic about the November 25 elections that, some say, could be a referendum for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

For all the apparent apathy, the elections promise a nail-biting finish, though the BJP appears to have a certain edge now in the three-cornered contest. At the same time, it would be presumptuous to take either the Congress or the Janata Dal-Rashtriya Janata Dal lightly.

Though the BJP's Mansukh Vasava has all the ingredients necessary of a strong candidate -- he was a minister in Keshubhai Patel's previous government and is a local tribal -- the party remembers only too well how he lost to the Congress's P D Vasava in the February elections. Also, the sporadic incidents of communalism is likely to affect the party's fortunes, especially in the minority-dominated areas.

The last factor may just lead to a negative consolidation of votes for either the Congress or the Janata Dal, or both. The overall disinterest in the elections and the price-rise, too, may work against the BJP, though the party dismisses the last mentioned as ``propaganda''.

On the other hand, the BJP has the major advantage of being the party in power. Besides, it can also fall back on the network of three sitting MLAs: Bipin Shah (Bharuch), Chhatarsinh Mori (Jambusar) and Jayanti Patel (Hansot). Patel, for one, is confident that though the fight is tough, Vasava will romp home.

Congress candidate Iqbal Kakuji has no electoral victory to his name. But his party is depending more on his social worker image the same image that made him a respectable loser to the BJP in the last Lok Sabha polls. Besides, Kakuji has the support of the MLAs from Waghra (Iqbal Patel) and Mangrol (Raman Chowdhury). Chowdhury, till last week, was with the Janata Dal.

In the opinion of the party's general secretary from Waghra taluka Amarsinh Raj, ``The Congress's secular image and Kakuji's grassroots-level work will bear fruits this time. The BJP is doomed to sink because of its failure on all fronts, whether it is controlling prices or communal clashes''.

The thorn in Kakuji's flesh is the Janata Dal's Chhotubhai Vasava -- the undisputed leader of tribals of at least four talukas -- who promises to eat into the Congress votes of tribals as well as Muslims. The four-time MLA, who's lost the Lok Sabha elections three times, can bank on his hold in the tribal areas, but is disadvantaged by his lax grip over the urban areas.

Mangrol MLA Raman Chaudhary's recent decision to switch loyalties to the Congress has come as a major blow to Vasava, as he risks losing at least some of his tribal votes to the Congress.

The Dal hopes RJP (the party got 55,000 votes to the Lok Sabha) support, a religion-based division in the urban vote and an anti-inflation, anti-BJP vote will help it sail through.