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Arvind N Das
When the Philippines elected a new president a few months ago, it has appeared to both his supporters and opponents that things would change radically with his election. There were several reasons for this view. First, although the Philippines has had a stronger democratic tradition compared to many of its Southeast Asian neighbours, a small elite has dominated its politics.
In these elections, there was a chance of that long-standing domination cracking. Second, the international investors and foreign institutions that blatantly determine politics around the world were solidly behind the establishment and were extremely apprehensive of power passing into the hands of unruly masa (masses). But more than any other factor, the most significant was the personality of the main contender for the presidential throne.
Among the dozen `presidentiables', the one with the largest political support was the former film star, Vice President Joseph Estrada, better known by his screen name `Erap'. The prospect of havinghim occupy the Malacanang presidential palace in Manila was enough to encourage different elements of the elite in the Philippines to contemplate jettisoning democracy altogether or to subvert its practice and somehow, anyhow, keep the former general-turned-liberaliser, Fidel Ramos in power.
Manila Times, a newspaper not entirely hostile to Estrada unlike most others, described him in graphic terms. ``The black sheep in the family and the only one of 10 children without a college degree, Jose Marcelo Ejercito Estrada has the most checkered reputation....He is a womaniser and ever so proudly proclaims he has many families but keeps the number of his children a closely guarded secret. Until recent years, he was excessive in his love for the bottle -- preferably the expensive Johnny Walker Blue Label -- and big servings of food.
He cultivates cozy ties with alleged gambling lords and has been seen with them much too often. Estrada is a living example of someone who has wined, dined and ``womaned'' to hisheart's content. A multi-awarded king of action movies and the box office for over 30 years, Estrada has spent a total of 29 years as a public official -- as San Juan town mayor for 17 years, senator for six years, and vice-president for six years.'' In the event, Erap Estrada won by a massive margin.
Political pundits are still trying to figure out the mystery. Why did a predominantly Catholic electorate so willingly `forgive' this self-confessed `sinner'? Why did this person, an aging former film star with little formal education and less public articulation of his politics, win? Can his victory be ascribed merely to charisma? Or is there a more durable basis to populist politics that has manifested itself in different parts of the world, from the MGR phenomenon in Tamil Nadu to the lead gained by a former Miss Universe in the presidential race in Venezuela?
Erap himself has been, predictably, compared to Ronald Reagan as a film star who moved on to the presidency of his country. But although Estrada ismost probably unaware of the career of south Indian movie stars who went on to occupy prominent political positions in their states, a more apt comparison would be with M.G. Ramachandran. Unlike Reagan, the roles that Erap Estrada performed in films were not merely fictional. Like MGR, he excelled in roles which carried a social message of a kind.
He was most often a Robin Hood who took from the rich to give to the poor. He also projected a similar image outside the silver screen. Erap's patronisation of the urban under-class, like MGR's, was well known even before entering politics. In that sense, myth and reality became part of a continuum for both these actor-politicians.
So much so that, as in the case of MGR, the incongruities between the public persona of Estrada and his private life did not matter to his adoring fans. In some respects, even his extra-marital activities served only to add to his machismo. In all, the image that Estrada acquired was one of an unrepentant populist, a man of the massesand, when he became mayor, also as a competent administrator. Even the fact that he had not quite opposed the dictatorship of Marcos did not go against Estrada.
Another factor ad-ded to Estrada's mass appeal. From childhood, he has had a history of anti-Americ-anism. He was expelled from school for beating up an American fellow-student called Hilton and in his films, too, he touched the latent anti-Americanism that smoulders in many Filipinos. Later, in politics, Estrada's opposition to the continuation of US bases in the Philippines also touched a chord and added to his popularity.
In this process, Estrada rallied behind him leading figures both from the dissident factions within the establishment as well as prominent left intellectuals. Thus, the rainbow coalition that he has created includes bankers and businessmen some of them even part of the Marcos crony capitalism and agrarian reformers some of them even leaders of the insurrectionary communist groups and critics of the IMF-dictated policies.It is this set of advisors who are now ranged behind him as he leads his country in celebrating its centennial of freedom.
The time is of significance. The celebrations of the centennial serves as a reminder to Filipinos that the ``democratic'' USA did not hesitate in colonising their country shortly after it won its independence from Spain. It is also recalled that even after the Second World War, while the Americans carried out land reforms in other parts of the Asia-Pacific, they consolidated the agrarian elite in the Philippines. Even the illusory ``tigerisation'' of Southeast Asia left a large number of Filipinos in poverty. Besides, the most recent IMF-ordered policies that Southeast Asia has been following have resulted in economic and political devastation.
How will Estrada cope with power? Like MGR, will he only use his undoubted mass appeal to carry on the same old policies? Will he be allowed any elbow space by the IMF-World Bank? Will the elite of the Philippines accept even the minimalempowerment of the masa that the Erap phenomenon represents? Or, will it happen in the Philippines as has happened in many other countries, that the more things change, the more they remain the same?
Today, as Estrada ranges himself against Mahathir Muhammad's attempts to deal with currency speculators and keep Malayasia free from the IMF, it would appear that mere dramatics is not training enough for the presidency of a country. Much more will no doubt be heard on this subject soon. And not only in Manila.
The writer is currently in Manila
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
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