This means that if the current growth rates continue the organised retail chains will sell Rs 16,000 crore of products out of the total retail sales of Rs 80,000 crore. The study also predicts that catalogue sales, teleshopping and electronic commerce will hold a important share of the total sales. This implies that the physical location of a store will not be as important as it is now.

The retail revolution in India washeralded a few years ago, when the first of the supermarkets were launched in metros like Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai and Bangalore. But they have not yet been able to make a significant dent on the retailing sector. What they have done, is to give a glimpse of things to come.

Within two years, the study notes, India will have its first Rs 100 crore food retailer. And within five years, Indian will have its first Rs 4000 crore retailer. This would put the retail store among the top ten companies in the country. ``There is a feeling that chain stores will never be able to match the personal service of neighbourhood kirana store,'' says Simon Bell, principal at AT Kearney who made his presentation at the India Economic Summit organised by the World Economic Forum. ``But this is wrong. Consumers are fast realising that a supermarket offers better prices and gives a wider choice of products. As the penetration of chain store outlets will increase, the kirana shop will be eded out of the market.''

The Kearney studyalso shows that the transition period from unorganised retailing to a proliferation of chain stores has been declining. While it took 50 years in the US, the change took place over 30 years in Western Europe. The period was 15 years for Brazil and just nine years for Thailand and Malaysia. In the US, over 80 per cent of retail sales are accounted for by chain stores. This is about 70 per cent in Western Europe. Clearly the days of the kirana shops in India are numbered.

While the kirana shop offers credit, home delivery and has low operating costs, it still can't match the chain stores. The sheer economies of scale allow for lower prices. Also the combination of stricter quality control, wider choice of products and smarter ambience is unbeatable. The typical neighbourhood store is small and does not allow the consumer to choose and decide on a product. Often the crowd at the counter forces him to hurry the purchases. Since a supermarket allows a consumer to roam between different stacks of products, thedegree of impulse buying and tendency to experiment with new brands is much higher. This leads to higher purchases which adds to the companies turnover.