So, expect no surprises on that count on February 27, 11 AM, when the finance minister reveals where the much-watched gap is pegged. It's going to be higher than he imagined at the beginning of his term.

Officially, the government has already admitted to a percentage point rise above the previous estimate, and analysts find hopes pinned on the disinvestment exercise will almost certainly be belied to cause a further spurt.

The finance ministry is anticipating an increase of around Rs 17,000 crore in the fiscal deficit for 1998-99. This will drive the total fiscal deficit up from the envisaged Rs 91,025 crore to about Rs 1,08,025 crore. The fiscal deficit will, thus, be higher by a little over one percent from the earlier estimated level of 5.6 per cent of the GDP. If the lower growth rate of the economy is factored in, the deficit will be proportionately higher, according to finance ministry officials. The shortfall has been calculated on the optimistic assumption that the government will, in fact, be able to mop up Rs 8,500 crore by way of disinvestment, a figure which has a pie-in-the-sky look to it. Some North Block officials have expressed scepticism about being able to achieve this mark and point to the fact that, except for the oil PSUs and Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd. The others have not concretised plans for buyback or for offloading of government stake by piggy-backing on primary market mop-ups. But revenue projections continue to be pegged at the officially sponsored figure of Rs 8,500 crore.

With the tug-of-war hotting up between government and industry over payment of telecom licence fees, the ministry is assuming in its projections that it may not be able to raise the budgeted Rs 2,500 crorefrom this sector. The industry now plans to go to court and an injunction would ensure that the inflow does not take place. The other assumptions, on which the Rs 17,000 cr extra deficit figure has been arrived at, are the following:

A Rs 10,000 crore addition to the deficit because of a sharp rise in small savings, PPF and deposit schemes for retiring employees. The budget estimate was Rs 21,640 crore but the actual figure will be around Rs 23,500 crore or so till December, 1998 (Seventy five per cent of this amount is to be disbursed, done on a calender year basis, to state governments as long term loans). Ministry sources say that the recent one per cent cut in interest rate on small savings does not seem to be discouraging the rise in savings. The ministry has already moved supplementaries worth Rs 9,000 crore to take care of the outgo. More supplementaries are likely in the next session of parliament.

An optimistic assumption of a Rs 10,000 crore shortfall in revenue receipts, all of it coming fromslippages in tax revenue (net to the centre). The projected shortfall (as of December, 1998), calculated with respect to monthly target figures, is substantially higher but the expectation is that the tax inflows will accelerate in the last three months of 1998-99.