The central argument against it revolves around the security angle. A debate on the issue will bring into the open sensitive decisions in defence and foreign policy which are best left alone. On the flip side, that is a classic argument forwarded by every government. The Congress too had trotted out this line that a discussion on the Bofors payoffs would affect the morale of the defence forces, when the opposition stalled Parliament for three weeks and its MPs shouted Gali gali maen shor hai Rajiv Gandhi chor hai. The second argument is that a discussion/JPC would rake up muck against the defence forces and it is better to shield them from such an onslaught for that is the one institution that still commands some respect in the country. The short answerto that is that hidden dirt will bring down a rotting structure even faster. Disclosures on the other hand can act as a deterrent and a warning to others.

The third argument: A JPC is not necessarily a sure way of getting to the truth,if past experience is anything to go by. In any case, a JPC is parliament in miniature and its members can be expected to toe their party line on any issue.

The JPC on Bofors yielded zilch. Twelve years have passed and six governments have come and gone and the country is yet to learn the truth behind the allegations of payoffs in the Howitzer gun deal, for all the sabrerattling that takes place from time to time. The second JPC on the mega securities scam also fa-iled to fix responsibility; no politician or bureaucrat was penalised. Harshad Mehta is back to his business. The flip side is that Bofors devoured the government of Rajiv Gandhi. The BJP has no doubt a problem on its hands. New to power, it may not manage as savvy an operation as was conducted by securities scamJPC chairman Ram Nivas Mirdha. His greatest achievement was to achieve a measure of unanimity on the conclusions.

Given the upper hand the opposition has in the Rajya Sabha and the slender majority the BJP enjoys in the Lok Sabha, it will be at the complete mercy of its allies once more. This is a headache the government would like to do without. The JPC, which can call witnesses and documents, will act like a goose that lays the golden eggs for the allies. During the last year, they have not lost any opportunity to extract their pound of flesh whenever their support became vital.

The Congress and the Left parties see this as a golden opportunity to embarrass the government. Regardless of what comes out of the probe, it will certainly keep the issue alive for months. Information will continue to leak out,and the Government will be put on the defensive. Bhagwat himself can appear before the committee. The former naval chief cannot come before Parliament. The Congress is bound to demand that GeorgeFernandes be shifted to another department in the interest of justice till the inquiry is over. The Prime Minister may or may not want to move him from Defence, but acceding to the demand brings the fight a step closer to Vajpayee himself. For after all, he had appointed Fernandes and the sack of Vishnu Bhagwat took place with his approval.

The demand for a JPC is part of the overall strategy of the Congress. Aware that the Vajpayee ministry may firm up its position in the coming months, the party has stepped up the pressure on it.

The Congress is now coming around to the view that the sooner this government goes, the better it is. And what better way for it to go than on some "ghotala" ? But engineering its downfall will not be so easy now as it was three months ago. There was a time not so long ago when a mere nod from Sonia Gandhi that she was ready to form an alternative non-BJP government would have brought down the pack of cards. That moment is gone, at least for the time being.

Sonia Gandhi maynot be able to improve all that the BJP has done for Jayalalitha. Mamata Bannerji is firmly in the Vajpayee camp. The BJD is less likely to split as it smells power in Orissa with the help of the BJP. The Congress is Chan-drababu Naidu's bugbear and he will not want to do anything to bring it to power at the Centre, and certainly not before the elections in Andhra Pradesh are over. Even if he seems to be losing he will want a friendly government at the Centre. Samata is the only party which could split at the Centre, following the exodus from its ranks in Patna. The "JPC" may have become a political demand but that does not detract from its importance. Security issues cannot impose a blanket ban on discussions or a probe. Bhagwat may be a maverick and may not have made specific allegations of corruption like Mohan Guruswamy did, but his charges are serious enough to merit a high-level inquiry. For the first time in independent India a navy chief was sacked on the ground that he was a security risk. Alleginggunrunning, Bhagwat has said that he was penalised because he was an obstacle. The country has a right to know the facts.