Government managers today conceded that Jaya's decision to join the Congress chorus for George's head had given a fillip to the opposition demand for a JPC probe into the Bhagwat affair. With the AIADMK's 18 MPs backing it, the Opposition is in a position to rustle up the necessary numbers in the Lok Sabha should the JPC question be put to vote. In the Rajya Sabha, it has the numbers anyway. The die may thus have been cast unless the Government moves quickly to bring Jaya back into the fold.

While a JPC does not bring down the Government, it certainly weakens it. Congress circles said that a probewas just the beginning. They are hoping to take the investigations up to Fernandes's doorstep and then mount pressure for his resignation. Jaya's insistence that Fernandes be shiftedout of the Defence Ministry because he was a ``security risk'' has made their task easier.

The Congress hopes to kill several birds with one stone by targeting Fernandes. He is a high-profile minister and an important troubleshooter for the Government. He also leads the Samata Party. Any erosion of his authority would make the Government more vulnerable to defections, particularly from the crisis-ridden Samata Party.

While the Congress party's aim is clear, BJP strategists are still grappling to understand Jaya's unexpected support to these plans. According to AIADMK sources, it is the start of a process which will culminate in an electoral alliance between Jaya and the Congress when the inevitable mid-term poll takes place. They feel the Vajpayee card has played itself out in Tamil Nadu and the AIADMK must look for otheroptions. The Congress under Sonia seems to be the best bet.

By making common cause with the Congress on Fernandes, Jaya seems to be paving the way for a future tie-up, the timing of which is still to be decided. But the ground is being prepared so that when she breaks with the BJP, it will seem natural.

Congress circles revealed that they have been in touch with Jaya for some time now and her attack on Fernandes is part of a joint strategy to corner the Vajpayee Government.

The scenario that is developing is grim indeed but the Government is drawing hope from the fact that Jaya has kept the door open for negotiations. After all, she did submit a list of demands, including cabinet possibilities, to Vajpayee when she met him for lunch. Also, there is no clarity in the Congress on the question of forming an alternative government. MPs in the ruling alliance, including the AIADMK, who are reluctant to face a mid-term poll are likely to hang in rather than opt for uncertainties.

Much depends on howshrewdly the BJP handles Jaya in the coming days. Today, it mounted pressure on her by trying to isolate her with a resounding vote of confidence from its other allies. But this will not be enough. Vajpayee's handicap is that he can no longer use Fernandes to bring her around and he has no other mediator of consequence.