For one, it will be argued that the government could do with the money to balance its budget -- even at book value, the government's 50 per cent stake is worth roughly Rs 1,400 crore. Second, from the point of view of reforms, the government has no business producing automobiles and the money got from this would be better utilised elsewhere, maybe even to revive sick PSUs -- the latter, of course, would be a political win-win argument. Third, it will be argued, especially in light of the sharp dip that Maruti reportedin its profitability a few days ago, that the intense competition will make Maruti less profitable and the value of the government's equity holdings will go down with each passing day.

Once Bakht relents, and there's no reason why he shouldn't in the face of the combined onslaught, the real action will start -- whom to sell the shares to, how to value them, and so on. That's when Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee will have to be the most vigilant, to ensure that his friends and well-wishers don't get him into the kind of soup that will make the finance minister's former aide Mohan Guruswamy's charges pale by comparison. In this case, the allegations will not be just of corruption, they will be of handing over India's most prestigious and profitable auto giant to a foreigner. Here's how I see the scenario unfolding.

Once it is decided that the government is to exit from Maruti Udyog, as per the government's agreement with Suzuki Motors, the first offer of sale of shares will have to be made to Suzuki. Atwhich point, Suzuki will make a pious statement that it has a very good understanding with its governmental-partner, that it has no desire to see the government walk out of the partnership.

We all know this is totally untrue and hypocritical, but you can bet Suzuki will simply brush under the carpet the extremely uneasy nature of relations it had with the government during the United Front days and that, to some extent, continues even till date. The reason why Suzuki will do this is obvious. If it agrees to buy the government's stake, it could have to shell out anywhere around Rs 3,000 crore.

With Suzuki not too keen to see its "favourite" partner wanting out, various spin-doctors, including perhaps some from Suzuki itself, will get into the act. The best solution, they'll argue, is to sell these to the financial institutions at a discount, and let these institutions sell them in the market later.

This will, at one stroke, shore up the assets of the financial institutions such as, say, UTI, and allowthem to make a killing on the stock market. Alternatively, it'll be proposed, why not sell the shares, again at a discount, to the small or individual investor. That way, he'll get a wonderful share cheap. What's more, such a wonderful equity issue, and so attractively priced, is really what the stock market needs, to give it a fillip. Some top investment banker, or some wonderful-sounding financial methods like "book-building", will be engaged to ensure that there is no hanky-panky, no rigging of prices, and hence no whiff of scandal.

The only problem is, if you examine the entire episode from a different angle, it reeks of a scam. While Suzuki was very keen to buy out at least a part of the government's stake at the height of its problems 16 to 18 months ago, such divesting to small shareholders or financial institutions allows Suzuki to get full control of Maruti without spending a penny.

Now, that surely is certain to raise a hue and cry far greater than that raised when Guruswamy charged that UTI wasgoing to be pressured to sell its stake in ITC to allow BAT to gain a controlling interest, but at a price far lower than it should have got for allowing BAT to get control of ITC. So what's the option? Does the government have to hold on to its stake in Maruti when it makes so much sense to sell it, just because of the fear that there may be all kinds of allegations when it does? No, that's not what's being suggested. But what the government does need to do is to refuse to fall into the trap that will be laid by all manner of spin doctors.

Once Suzuki declines to buy the government shareholding in Maruti, the government must offer this stake to other investors in the form of a strategic sale. Surely, a General Motors or a Ford or a Honda will be interested in buying into a company which has such tremendous goodwill in the country, a well-established production base, vendor chain and retail network? But this, it will be argued, will cripple Maruti Udyog once again, just the way it did when the governmentand Suzuki had a stand-off -- two equal partners cannot run a company, it has to be one or the other, will be the argument given.

Frankly, that's a lot of nonsense, and, in any case, immaterial. If Suzuki and, say, General Motors, have a problem working together, one will buy out the other over a period of time. While that certainly won't hurt Maruti Udyog, any other option will seriously damage the government's credibility.