The chosen epicentre of Jayalalitha's earthquake wasn't Parliament House or any of half-a-dozen monuments in Delhi, but a tea party hosted by the inimitable Dr. Subramanian Swamy. This, inevitably, led to gleeful comparisons with the famous forebear thrown by the Mad Hatter (though nobody bothered to pin `Dormouse' or `March Hare' labels on anyone).

So far, so good. But Jayalalitha's one-step-forward-two-steps-back minuet is beginning to pall. No matter what the Vajpayee ministry does, the AIADMK supremo opposes as if by Pavlovian reflex. She opposes the move to normalise relations with Pakistan, describing that country asvolatile and unpredictable. (Well, we know one person in Chennai who was not applauding when Akram & Co. took that famous victory lap).

She opposes the stiffening of sinews on the Chinese border, saying that both countries can become friends if Subramanian Swamy and she can patch up. (Such an identification with the country hasn't been heard since the ``India is Indira, Indira is India!'' days.) She opposes the Cauvery accord, the first real attempt at peace between the upper and lower riparian areas in two thousand years ...

How boring! In fact, by now I am surprised to read anyone describing the AIADMK chief as ``unpredictable''. She is nothing of the kind; notice what the Prime Minister does, and it is a safe bet that she will do the opposite. No, what intrigues me is the Congress's behaviour.

At Pachmarhi, the Congress sensibly decided it wouldn't have any truck with the smaller regional outfits, but strike out for power on its own. Yet over the past two months, the party has allowed its agenda tobe hijacked by precisely the same small groups it disparaged. Laloo Prasad Yadav was permitted to set the pattern on Bihar, effectively leaving the Congress hostage to the next massacre in that unhappy state. And now it is Jayala-litha's turn to force So-nia Gandhi's hand.

What exactly does the Congress propose to do if the Vajpayee ministry is brought do-wn. (I am not saying that it shall fall, merely pu-tting forward a hypothesis.) Three possibilities come to mind: a ministry supported fr-om outside by the Co-ngress, a Congress-led government, or another general election.

As for the first option, all I can say is, ``A joke is a joke, but come on, don't carry it too far''. Farcical attempts to erect stable governments on the quicksand of Congress support have been made four times. Chandrashekhar, H.D. Deve Gowda, I.K. Gujral, and the ghost of Charan Singh can attest to the idiocy of every such experiment. Even the numbers aren't there any longer -- the United Front which boasted about 175 members in theeleventh Lok Sabha would be hard put to cross the triple figure mark in the twelfth.

Let us see, Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party numbers 20, Laloo Prasad Yadav has 17, the Left Front has 48, the Janata Dal has six ... Not enough in a House of 543, is it?

Right, on to the second possibility -- a Sonia Gandhi ministry in which other parties may or may not participate. The Congress has barely 140 votes of its own in the Lok Sabha, 40 less than the BJP. Even adding the Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Left Front, and Janata Dal figures pushes up that number to about 240. That is still around 30 short of the slimmest of majorities. Add the AIADMK and Subramanian Swamy, hope that several parties absent themselves, and the Congress may just about make it.

But what then? Ja-yalalitha hasn't taken in anyone with her sudden concern for Vishnu Bh-agwat. (She had little to say when the talkative Navy Chief of Staff was dismissed three months ago.) The brutal fact is that the AIADMK is unhappy with theBJP because it has consistently refused to dismiss the DMK government in Tamil Nadu. The price of supporting the Congress is Karunanidhi's head.

And that shall only be the beginning. Can you picture a one-man party in the form of Subramanian Swamy laying claim to the Finance or the Defence portfolio? How about a general go-slow on all `sensitive' corruption cases? (To digress a little, Jayalalitha has been demanding why George Fernandes hasn't been sack-ed/shifted when her own S. Muthiah was moved out at the first opportunity. Could it be because a court found a prima facie case against the AIADMK man while the only one throwing mud on the Defence Minister is the slightly biased Vishnu Bhagwat?)

Moreover, this hypothetical Congress ministry shall find that the AIADMK is only one of the many swords hanging above those ministerial thrones. Mulayam Singh Yadav shall have his own list of demands, beginning with the immediate dismissal of the Kalyan Singh ministry in Uttar Pradesh. Laloo Prasad Yadav will wantan assurance that he doesn't spend any more time behind bars. And so on ...

Speaking on the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss, I note that the venerable Jyoti Basu has gone back to his old ploy of calling the BJP names, ``barbaric'' being a favourite epithet. (Someone should lend the Chief Minister of West Bengal a thesaurus). Does the Marxist patriarch seriously consider Laloo Prasad Yadav the epitome of civilisation?

Faced with a shopping-list from these worthies, the Congress may well decide to throw up its hands, and ask for a dissolution rather than see its reputation torn to tatters. Ah, but that is when the fun really starts.For a start, doing so is to accept that the Congress can't manage contradictions despite all its boasts. Secondly, the smaller parties -- meaning practically everyone who isn't in the BJP or Congress-led fronts -- are uneasily aware of the power of polarisation. They can feed their delusions of playing kingmaker when neither the Congress nor the BJP has a majority. But is there anyguarantee that this happy situation shall continue into the thirteenth Lok Sabha? The opinion polls suggest otherwise.

Much as the Congress might fancy its chances in a general election -- perhaps the BJP too -- the smaller parties won't stand for it. And where does that lead us to? More boring tea-parties, perhaps?