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Wednesday, April 14, 1999

Fall at Centre may lead to split in allies

Sharad Gupta  
NEW DELHI, April 13: The possibility of an alternative government being formed after the fall of the Vajpayee Government could trigger off splits in some of the BJP's allies, like the Samata Party and the Biju Janata Dal.

At least two out of 12 Samata MPs seem to have already decided to switch sides and are waiting for others to jump off the ``sinking ship''.

Similarly, the BJD MPs opposed to party chief Naveen Patnaik are also waiting for ``concrete developments'' before announcing their decision.

Aware of developments in the ranks of their allies, BJP leaders are preparing to counter them when it comes to the crunch in the Parliament.

``We can't open our cards right now. But we are sure to win the vote of confidence in Lok Sabha'' claimed a senior party leader.

Samata Party MPs Shakuni Chaudhuri and Kalpanath Rai today called on some of their party colleagues to mobilise support for the split. ``They have been left with no option after the party leadership and Prime Minister Atal BehariVajpayee persistently ignored their claim for a Cabinet berth during past one year,'' claimed a Samata worker close to dissident leaders.

Kalpanath himself did not mince words. Hinting that he was promised a Cabinet berth while being offered a Samata Party ticket before 1998 elections, Rai told The Indian Express: ``I have been cheated. I have been humiliated. Now is the time for Samata MPs to pay back party leaders in the same coin''. Rai is angry with Vajpayee for deferring Cabinet expansion twice after formally announcing his intentions. ``Cabinet headed by stalwarts like Indira Gandhi, Morarji Desai and V P Singh always used to have 55 to 60 ministers, but there are only 38 ministers in the Vajpayee Cabinet. Why couldn't he include senior leaders like me who have put in 25 years in the Parliament?''he complained.

Both Rai and Chaudhury called on their party colleague Abdul Gafoor, impressing upon the need for a split in the party and joining the alternative formation ``gradually taking shape''. ``Iheld elaborate discussions with them. They, however, had no answer to the question on where do we go after the split -- to Laloo's RJD or the Congress -- both parties we have been opposing in Bihar,'' Gafoor told this reporter.

The Samata dissidents, however, believe that all the fears of people like Gafoor would evaporate once the BJP-led Government falls and they would, perforce, be part of the exodus from the present coalition and the break-away faction could have support of as many as eight MPs.

In a bid to give a fillip to his campaign, Rai reportedly called on Jayalalitha late this evening. ``She is my friend for 20 years and I don't see any harm in calling on her if she has invited me,'' he said before handing out a warning to his party leaders,``There still are some leaders in my party who will rise to the occasion when it comes.''

Samata Party dissidents complain that a section of their leaders had usurped all the ``creamy posts'' for themselves. ``There is a person (George Fernandes) who holdsfive positions -- party chief, Samata Party Parliamentary Board chairman, Cabinet Minister, Parliamentary party leader and chairman of coordination committee -- while others with much more capability are simply lost in obscurity. Has he no regard for his own `one-man-one-post' slogan?'' asked a dissident.

Like Samata, another of BJP's allies the BJD, with two warring factions led by Naveen Patnaik and Dilip Ray, is also vulnerable for splitting. A senior member of the Ray faction claimed that they had support of seven out of nine party MPs, with the solid backing of four of them who were not averse to joining the alternative government also. The Opposition is also hoping that Shiromani Akali Dal, facing similar dissension in its ranks, may be riven apart due to internal wranglings between Badal and Tohra factions. on to her last card in an attempt to drive the best bargain possible. She spent the day holed up in her hotel suite, meeting a host of minor opposition leaders including RPI's R S Gavai, IUML's GM Banatwala and E Ahamed and Kerala Congress party's P C Thomas. From the sketchy reports available of her discussions with them, Jaya apparently complained about the cool attitude of the opposition parties, the withdraw-first-then-talk terms set by them.Certainly, no major leader made any attempt to meet her. The RLM leaders were away in UP attending the wedding of Mulayam Singh Yadav's niece and the Congress kept its distance. Congress sources said Sonia Gandhi would only meet her after she withdraws support.

Sonia herself was noncommittal. ``As and when the situation develops and I am required to meet her, I am prepared to do so,'' she said as she was leaving a kirtan held at Arjun Singh's house to honour the tercentennary of the Khalsa Panth.

The party's studied nonchalance, however, could not hide the tension gripping the leadership over Jaya's inaction on the withdrawal front.

Realising that its continued refusal to entertain negotiations on an alternative government may save the VajpayeeGovernment, the Congress unbent slightly today to indicate that the options of leading a coalition were open.

``We have to see the political reality and accordingly consider or reconsider a coalition if necessary,'' senior leader Arjun Singh said. It was an ambiguous statement but later in the evening, Sonia Gandhi reinforced the impression that the Congress wanted to dangle the carrot of a coalition when she too did not rule it out. ``It is too premature to talk about coalitions,'' was all she said when asked about the possibility of a Congress-led alliance.

Significantly, the nuanced shift in the party's stand came less than 24 hours after Salman Khursheed gave an inkling of the mood in the Congress by categorically ruling out a coalition. Today, Arjun Singh was hastily pushed in as the party's only authorised spokesman on the current political situation to prevent any more slips.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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