The monsoon data available at the Meteorological Centre here therefore suggest that September is the nearest ideal month for holding elections in the country in the event of a normal course of the South-West monsoon.

The precise arrival time of monsoon and if it would be normal can only be available by the third week of May, when the forecast, based on a 16-point parameter, is put out by the Meteorological Department. The forecast has gained credibility in the last couple of years with its near accuracy.

The MET office, however, keeps a normal course of monsoon, based on past data from 1901 to 1982 for its purposes and according to this, South-West monsoon sets over the country by June 1 and starts receding by September.

Though it lingers over the southern States till mid-October, vast parts of the country -northern, north-western and north-eastern areas - will be free of rains by September.

The North-East monsoon does not normally trouble north India as it is confined to southern States of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and parts of Karnataka, ensuring rains in these parts till December end.

But September is a leaner monsoon month for the southern States too, as the South-West monsoon is normally weak by the time and the North-East monsoon a good one month away with its normal arrival time set around mid-October. When contacted, Laxminarayanan, the Meteorological Centre director, here, said July was normally the wettest month in the country.

He said the country had a normal South-West monsoon last year. It set over Kerala and Tamil Nadu on June 2, while over the north-eastern States of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura a couple of days earlier, on May 29.

It advanced into coastal Karnataka and south interior Karnataka on June 7. By June 17 it covered most parts of Gujarat, parts of Haryana,Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and the hills of West Uttar Pradesh. On June 26, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Porbander, Rajkot, Vadodara, Kota, Delhi, Patiala and Jammu.

By June 30, it covered the entire country, two weeks earlier than the normal schedule. The rapid advance of the monsoon in most parts of the country last year was due to the formation of a very severe cyclonic storm over the Arabian Sea and the depression over the Bay of Bengal during the first half of June.

Though August also comparatively witnessed a lean spell in north India, it could turn out to be severe for north-eastern States on account of the break-monsoon phenomenon, the Met office director said. The earliest recorded date of onset of South-West monsoon was May 11 and that occurred in two years - 1918 and 1955. The latest recorded date of onset was June 18, 1972.