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Wednesday, May 5, 1999

Can Arafat magic get a state out of Israel?

AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE  
Five years after the launch of Palestinian autonomy, the emergence of a new state on the troubled Middle-East map appears all but inevitable, even if its viability remains deep in doubt.

The five years of autonomy, have laid the base for statehood despite efforts by the hardline Israeli Government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prevent the establishment of any kind of true Palestinian sovereignty.

Elections in January 1996 created a Palestinian legislature and an executive branch -- the Palestinian National Authority --1 headed by ``President'' Arafat.

The authority is a veritable mini-state providing education, health servies an d a court system for nearly three million Palestinians, all under the watchful eye of a 30,000-strong security force.``Palestine'' also has many of the trappings of statehood, from a national flag and anthem to a state airline, postal system and even an international dialling code.

At the same time, the main obstacle to the creation of a state -- Israeli publichostility -- is evaporating. According to a recent opinion poll, for the first time, 55 per cent of the Israeli Jews believe their Palestinian neighbours deserve their own state.

Even as the``sacred date'' of May 4 passed yesterday, Yasser Arafat was deeply engaged in what he has learned to do best during 30 years as the Palestinians' top leader -- manoeuvring his way out of political quandaries partly of his own making.

Last week's announcement by the PLO reaffirming the Palestinians' right to independence while sidestepping the long-promised May 4 target date for statehood was a classic Arafat wiggle.

It avoided a clash with Israel that he could ill-afford and satisfied world leaders he cannot do without, while leaving the fundamental issues which have deadlocked the peace process for three years unresolved.Beginning as a student activist in Egypt, then as a guerrilla leader and now as President of the Palestinian Authority, Arafat has repeatedly turned setbacks into self-declared victories and, inthe process, brought his people closer, albeit slowly, to their goal of self-determination. At the worst of times, when Arafat was hiding from Israeli hitmen and the bullets of Palestinian rivals, his exploits were tragi-comic.

Such was the case in 1981 on the docks of Lebanon's northern Port of Tripoli where, his fighters routed by the Israeli Army, Arafat boarded a ship into distant exile proclaiming a win for Palestinian military prowess. But some of Arafat's political theatre has also borne the seeds of breakthrough like the ``Declaration of Independence'' issued by the PLO during a 1988 conference in Algiers. The move could have appeared laughable, except that the declaration contained an implicit recognition of Israel's right to exist by placing the fictive Palestinian state alongside the Jewish entity.

The formula won Washington's acceptance of the PLO as a representative of the Palestinian people and led to the landmark 1991 Mid-east peace conference in Madrid and ultimately, the 1993 Osloautonomy accords. With such diplomatic conjuring, Arafat has succeeded in carving out a small patchwork homeland in the West Bank and Gaza Strip where, within tight geo-political constraints, he rules largely unchallenged.In a recent whirlwind tour of some 50 nations which belied his 69 years and reportedly frail health, Arafat has also gained explicit support for a Palestinian state from numerous world leaders, including the European Union, although not yet the United States. It remains to be seen whether Arafat's magic can now wrest from Israel the right to transform the fragile Palestinian autonomy into a viable independent state.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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