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Sunday, July 25, 1999

With eyes on CM's chair, Munde gets into top gear

PRANATI MEHRA  
MUMBAI, JULY 24: Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Gopinath Munde is having to do a delicate balancing act between his own aspirations in the State and his party's electoral compulsions at the Centre.

Forever in a hurry to shed the `deputy' prefix before his designation, it was Munde, more than anybody else, who pushed for simultaneous polls in the State he first got Prime Minister A B Vajpayee to give his consent and then repeatedly coaxed and cajoled a reluctant Bal Thackeray till he finally gave his nod last week.

That's why even though the old seat-distribution equation between the Shiv Sena and BJP was left untouched last week, Munde took it in his stride. As per the arrangement, the BJP will contest 26 of the 48 LS seats (22 for the Sena) while conceding 171 of the 288 Assembly seats to its partner (keeping only 117 for itself).

The seat sharing formula is significant because it is the party which wins more seats that gets the chief minister's post. Thus, Munde would have itched for a biggershare of seats. But BJP central party, which is clearly more concerned about the LS election than the Assembly, did not want to open up another front for a tug of war with the Sena. As it is, it was only after the installation of Narayan Rane as chief minister that relations between the two parties improved.

But that has not dampened Munde or the State BJP unit's spirits. The party is confident that given the extent of disenchantment against the Sena, it can still manage to win more seats than its partner. Partymen cite the results of last elections in support of their optimistic assessment: in 1995, while Sena won 74 seats out of the 171 it contested, the BJP notched up 65 from just 117 (over 55 per cent success rate). So, even if the BJP does not do exceedingly well, a slight swing against the Sena -- which is very likely -- can see it bag more seats and the chief ministership.

That is why Munde is giving it all he has got and that is why the State BJP is making no bones about projecting him as the onlyleader of Maharashtra. Little wonder then that the seemingly innocuous advertisement in the Saamna and other papers, proclaiming Munde as the leader of the State, drew strong reactions from the Sena. Munde lost no time after the last coordination committee meeting of the two parties -- which decided on simultaneous polls -- and rushed off on an intensive nine-day campaign tour even as the Sena was grappling with one of the worst spats between Uddhav Thackeray and cousin Raj. This even though one of the sour points thrashed out at the meeting was the unilateral election campaign launched by Munde even before simultaneous polls were formally announced.

As far as Munde is concerned, he's already won half the battle by getting Bal Thackeray to go in for simultaneous polls because that enables BJP (and Sena to a lesser extent) to get the advantage of a ``ready-made third force''. Last year, the Congress got the SP and RPI to contest polls (LS) along with it, rendering the fight two-pronged. Result, the SS-BJPalliance got 42 per cent votes and the Congress-RPI-SP combine 49 per cent votes, the Congress romping home with 33 Lok Sabha seats. Even in 1995 (Assembly polls), the alliance polled 29 per cent while the Congress got 30 per cent votes with the 45 independents as the ``third force''.

The BJP's calculation is to get Sharad Pawar to provide the third force and in the process divide the other parties too.

Says a high-ranking party official: ``We have forced the hand of the Congress. The party will split down to the panchayat-level now, instead of three months later. Besides, the other political groups have also been forced to decide whom they want to go with. The third force is now ready.''Subtly, the BJP has also put the NCP in a dilemma. For the LS polls Pawar would have gone with the ``Maratha pride'' plank and could have put the question of his chief ministerial candidate on the back burner. But by clubbing the Assembly polls, the BJP has forced Pawar to project a chief minister now. And therein liesthe rub. With the State Marathas desperate to take the reins, projecting his most-trusted lieutenant, Chhagan Bhujbal, will have its own difficulties.

All this, Munde hopes, adds up to his advantage and well it might. But even then, a lot depends on the outcome of the LS polls. If the BJP still needs the Sena support at the Centre, Munde may yet have to wait longer to realise his dream.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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