Already, in fact, the bad monsoon has triggered fears of a failed groundnut crop in Saurashtra, encouraging traders and oil-millers to start hoarding groundnut oil. Festival shopping, which is still in the nascent stages, is likely to push prices up further.

Ukabhai Patel, president of the Saurashtra Oil Millers' Association, says that if groundnut oil costs Rs 40/kg now, it could go up to Rs 60 as Diwali nears. ``The mills are running out of raw material as farmers have stopped selling their produce. Some have already sold off their stocks to domestic consumers and oil mills, and there's a scarcity now.

``Others are holding on for a time when demand is high, along with the cost of the raw material. All these factors, besides the possibility of a crop failure, are pushing up prices steadily'', he told Express Newsline.

Around this time last year, per 15 kg tin of groundnut oil cost Rs 600. Hoarding and largescale inter-State trade pushed prices steadily up to a whopping Rs 1,000, paving the way to a `Black Diwali'. ``This year prices will stabilise around Rs 900-950 by Diwali'', predicts Patel.

Ground signs indicate that could well be true: at present the 15-kg tin costs Rs 650. Early last week, it was available for Rs 600; at the end of the week, it cost Rs 625. On Saturday, trading closed at Rs 650.

Market sources say hoarding will create an artificial scarcity that will trigger panic buying. ``Many households are ready to stock up on oil rightaway to avoid high prices. This will also contribute to the price rise'', they warn.

Wiser after the 1998 fiasco, the authorities are apparently trying to control the damage. According to Gujarat Civil Supplies Corporation chief Chaman Kumar, the Centre is ready to supply the State any quantity of palmolein -- the Gujarati's first alternative to groundnut oil -- at Rs 20/kg, since imports were 200 per cent higher this year.

``Besides, we have 8,000 tonnes of groundnut in stock'', says Kumar. ``We've been acquiring it for the past couple of months.''

Though cottonseed oil and palmolein oil are available for Rs 30-35 and Rs 20-25 respectively, according to market and official sources, the administration is keeping its fingers crossed. Civil Supplies secretary P K Das met nine district supply officers in Vadodara last week to impress the need to control edible oil prices. A meeting in Rajkot in the next fortnight will focus on the same theme.

``I'm also keeping a watch on the prices daily, along with the chief secretary'', Das told Express Newsline.

But it may already be too late.

Threat lingers
While Director, Meteorological Department, Gandhinagar, R K Baklival believes Saurashtra will receive ``normal'' rain, the failure of crop is the biggest sceptre hovering over the groundnut oil market. The newly sown groundnut and cotton crop in more than 21 lakh hectares in Saurashtra and Kutch are at risk, but even more endangered is the standing groundnut crop. Says A R Odedara, Deputy Director of Agriculture, ``There cannot be more than 20 to 30 per cent crop under these circumstances.''