Perhaps it has. Four days ago, Laloo came to file his nomination papers here and was stood up by the people. The man who charmed a whole nation couldn't find a decent crowd for his public meeting. A handful of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leaders and workers, along with a dozen cars, escorted him to the office of the District Magistrate. But when the time came for the meeting, the sulking Laloo refused to budge from his post beside the DM's office till a few more people were convinced to join the audience. RJD men rushed around to herd up heads, but all they managed was a bare 2,000.

Even Laloo would acknowledge that this was an embarrassment. His arch-rivals in the state Nitish Kumar, Ram Vilas Paswan and George Fernandesof the Janata Dal (United) came to file their nominations along with huge gatherings. And these were all spontaneous.

Electioneering is yet to be launched in Madhepura, but the general opinion is that Laloo is facing an uphill task. Having seen very little of development and enough of gimmicks during his party rule, the people are now demanding results. The RJD chief's talk of fight against communal forces has cut little ice. In fact, Sharad Yadav of the JD(U) -- despite his party's pro-BJP leanings -- is considered to have solid secular and Mandal credentials.

Laloo's life has been made even more miserable by some local youths who have returned here after studying in places like Jawaharlal Nehru University and Delhi University and given a call for boycott of ``outsiders''. Though they aren't really fond of Sharad Yadav, they feel Laloo has treated Madhepura as a fiefdom. The youths also insist that the RJD leader has climbed to power riding on Sharad Yadav's political philosophy and shoulders.

Besidesthe local resentment, Laloo has to deal with the new caste and vote equations following the merger of JD rebels and the Samata Party. In the nine years of Laloo's rule, Yadavs have gained at the expense of other communities like the Dalits, OBCs, Kurmis and Koeris. Now, these have come together under the JD(U) umbrella.

Even a half-stitched Opposition had torn apart Laloo's hopes in 1998, when his party had won just 17 Lok Sabha seats out of the 54 in the state. This time, the Opposition tie-up is well-knit, and well-calculated. Statistics reveal that in 1998, Laloo had got 47.2 per cent of the votes in Madhepura when his RJD had fought along with the Congress and CPI. Sharad Yadav, then fighting on a JD ticket, had polled 39 per cent votes. The Samata candidate, former CBI joint director N.K. Singh, had got 9.7 per cent votes. A simple addition of the Samata-JD votes puts their share 2 per cent more than Laloo's on the seat.

In the rest of the state, the numbers are piled up even more against the RJD.Last time, it had got 26.58 per cent of the votes, the Congress 7.27 per cent (five seats) and the CPI 3.4 per cent. On the other hand, the BJP had polled 24.03 per cent votes (winning 20 seats), the Samata 15.74 per cent (10 seats) and the JD 8.72 per cent. However, only Paswan of all the JD candidates had won. Thus, while the vote share of Laloo and allies all over the state was around 33.25 per cent, the BJP and Samata-JD (now JD-U) managed around 48.49 per cent. Even if there is a slight shift, support for the BJP or JD(U) is not likely to fall so drastically. On the other hand, it is Laloo who is going into the race with the burden of fodder scam charges and frequent jail stints.

Besides, it is not clear how far the Yadavs would go to support their benefactor. Though a majority of them are still loyal to Laloo, his politics of confrontation makes them uneasy. The Yadavs recall that it was the upper-caste backlash against Mandalisation that helped them close ranks and get control of power. Now, they arein the driver's seat and wonder if the Dalits and OBCs who have been taken for a ride are ready for a similar change.

There have been signs of rebellion within the RJD as well and many expect a split if the party does poorly. Recently, three senior RJD leaders, including a Cabinet minister, defected from the party.

Senior RJD leaders are not sure how far Laloo's call against communalism will be effective as a weapon against this discontent. A senior party leader confides: ``It was simply to draw the attention of national parties and to make a place for himself in national politics that Laloo was giving this call. More than any other leader of any national party, Laloo is aware of the ground realities in Bihar.''

The signs indicate this too. Gone are the smile and the wit, replaced by an almost constant frown and frequent outbursts of anger. Even close aides admit that it will take another one of Laloo's miracles for the RJD to do well in Bihar this time. Last seen, the RJD chief was trying to propitiatethe Gods with prayers.