There are as many as 26 Muslim MLAs in the 126-member-strong Assam Assembly. The community is a deciding factor in at least 35 assembly seats, and holds the key in six of the state's 14 Lok Sabha constituencies -- Dhubri, Barpeta, Nagaon, Silchar, Karinganj, Mangaldoi -- and, to some extent, in Kaliaganj.

Till 1983, the Congress used to get almost 100 per cent of these votes. But the 1985 Assam Accord which the Rajiv Gandhi government at the Centre signed with the All Assam Students' Union put paid to that. The Congress's vote share among the Muslims plummeted and saw a revival only in 1998. This time, the party is expected to again lose a chunk.

The reasonbeing the split in the United Minorities' Front (UMF). Formed by Congressmen who quit in protest against the Assam Accord, the UMF fought last time as an ally of the Congress. This time, it is going into the polls with a split. While the faction led by A.F.A. Golam Osmani joined the Congress last month, the group headed by H.R. Ahmed Choudhury has sided with the Nationalist Congress Party. The NCP, of course, was formed by Sharad Pawar and P.A. Sangma after they rebelled and quit the Congress.

This must be particularly jarring for the Congress as the party has long believed that as long as the Alis (Muslims), Coolies (tea-garden workers) and Bengalis (Hindu Bengali migrants) were with it, Assam was easy ground.

The UMF split is significant considering the support the party enjoys in the state. In 1985, it had polled 13.01 per cent of votes in the Lok Sabha elections, apart from winningly assembly seats. This had directly contributed to the rout of the Congress at the hands of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).Faced with shrinking support now, the Congress has nominated Muslims in two constituencies, Osmani in Barpeta and Abdul Hamid in Dhubri. The Congress has also appointed former chief minister Syeda Anowara Taimur as its state unit working chief.

The AGP-led ruling alliance is not far behind. While ally CPI's nominee Allaudin Sarkar is contesting in Dhubri, partner United People's Party of Assam's (UPPA) Abdul Muhib Mazumdar is taking on the BJP's Kabindra Purkayastha in Silchar. The Congress is fighting AGP efforts to woo Muslims tooth and nail. Its manifesto charges: ``There is an attempt to harass minorities (read Muslims) in the name of detecting and removing foreigners, and the IMDT (Illegal Migrants' Determination Tribunal) Act is sought to be repealed by the AGP and BJP.'' Congress leaders, and the UMF, also talk of the state government ``harassing'' the Muslims in the name of checking ISI activities.

To quell doubts these charges may arise, UPPA leader Mazumdar has declared that there would be nothreat to India's sovereignty even if Assam became a Muslim-majority state.

But while parties make their pitch, most Muslims in the state are too smart to listen. And too smart to show their cards. So far, they have given no indication of their voting behaviour.