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Saturday, September 25, 1999

Sanctions hurt Pakistan more than India -- US report

Chidanand Rajghatta  
WASHINGTON, SEPT 24: Economic sanctions imposed by the Clinton administration following the May 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia "appear to have had a relatively minimal overall impact on India and a minimal but somewhat more pronounced adverse impact on Pakistan," a US government report has said.

The report, prepared by the US International Trade Commission for the US Congress, says quantitative estimates indicate that economic effects of the Glenn Amendment (under which sanctions were imposed) are likely to be small for all countries involved: the United States, India, and Pakistan. For the United States, the sanctions impose a total cost of $ 161 million. For India and Pakistan, the sanctions impose total costs of $ 320 million and $ 57 million, respectively, the report said.

The figures suggest that while the sanctions were intended to hurt New Delhi to a greater degree, its more robust economy weathered the situation better. Clinton administration officials said openly last year that the sanctionswere being calibrated in such a way as to punish the larger power to a greater degree.

Based on a telephone survey of over 200 American companies and associations, the report found that U.S. companies most affected by the sanctions were those involved in the sale of wheat and certain other agricultural products; industrial machinery; transportation, construction, and mining equipment; electronics products; and infrastructure development services.

Specifically, the report said recent trade data indicate that reimposition of the agricultural component of the sanctions (which was waived recently) most likely would adversely affect U.S. wheat exports to Pakistan, which is an important customer for white wheat grown in the U.S. Pacific Northwest states and which relies on USDA export credits for such purchases. India, which is self sufficient in food, does not buy grain from the U.S.

While the check list hurt Pakistan more, the loss of trade and project finance support from the U.S. Export-Import Bank andthe Overseas Private Insurance Corporation, as required by the Glenn Amendment sanctions, particularly hindered the ability of some U.S. companies to operate in India. The Commission received several reports that this may have contributed to the perception of U.S. companies as unreliable international suppliers, the report said.

The report also said humanitarian activities in India and Pakistan appear minimally affected because the Glenn Amendment sanctions do not apply to the provision of food, humanitarian aid, and medicines and medical equipment. However, for both countries it is difficult to isolate the effects of the U.S. sanctions from other concurrent economic events, such as each country's domestic economic policies or economic sanctions imposed by other countries.

The report said major alternative suppliers benefitting from reduced U.S. exports to India and Pakistan are Japan; Europe; the rest of Asia; and Australia, New Zealand, and other South Pacific trading partners.The report comes at acrucial time when the administration is mulling over the effect of sanctions amid pressure from lawmakers to abandon, ease, or modify the existing sanction laws. Legislations to this effect is pending in both the Congress and the Senate.

While it has comfortably weathered the sanctions, New Delhi continues to be miffed at the trade downturn despite the upbeat political and diplomatic equations with Washington. At a press conference in New York on Thursday, External Affairs Mnister Jaswant Singh expressed his unhappiness over the continuing sanctions in no uncertain terms, despite his much-ballyhooed eight round of talks with US Deputy Secretary Strobe Talbott, parleys which are said to be bringing about a fundamental shift in Indo-US ties.

Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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