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Wednesday, October 13, 1999

Time running out, NCP climbs down

PRAFULLA MARPAKWAR  
MUMBAI, OCT 12: The brief dalliance of the Sena-BJP with Sharad Pawar nearly ended forcing the NCP to climb several notches down to try and retrieve its relationship with the Congress but the contours of the next government were still unclear on Tuesday.

The BJP is learnt to have given up the idea of getting Pawar's support as it could not get Bal Thackeray around. Uddhav and Raj Thackeray, who flew to Delhi yesterday, carried Bal Thackeray's message to L K Advani that the Sena would not cherish the idea of either taking Pawar's support in Maharashtra or giving him a berth at the Centre.

That the BJP -- which was expecting to claim the chief ministership for getting the NCP support -- has resigned itself to the reality of Thackeray's distaste for any deal with Pawar was evident from the fact that Pawar, who was in Delhi during the day returned to Mumbai and has no plans of returning for the swearing-in of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. A signal that he will not be part of the ministry and byinference that the deal is dead.

That settled, outgoing chief minister Narayan Rane and his deputy Gopinath Munde -- who put the revolt against Rane behind him -- sat down behind closed doors to draw out a detailed plan to muster the numbers required to stake claim to form government. That plan will centre around engineering defections from the NCP. Some senior leaders such Sudhakarrao Naik have already announced their preference for the Sena-BJP. Rane is hoping a small group of 10 to 15 members led by Naik will rescue the Sena in exchange for a key portfolios or deputy chief minister's post.

``In the House of 288, we have 125. Eleven Independents and four members of the smaller parties have extended support. In the days to come, we should be able to secure the support of six more to get simple majority (145). By Friday, we will be a position to stake claim,'' Rane told his paper. Raj Thackeray also exuded confidence: ``We are moving in the right direction now,'' he said.

This sudden dumping by the BJPseemed to have caused some kind of a panic in the NCP. The party which only yesterday stood steadfast on its demand for chief minister's post with the Congress -- causing the latter to walk out the talks -- ate humble pie today. It almost gave up its claim for the chief ministership saying it was flexible if that was the only hurdle to an alliance.

NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal said it was prepared to give up its demand in exchange for a package: deputy chief ministership, Speaker of the Assembly, key portfolios ad heads of the state-run corporations. ``The post of Chief Minister is negotiable. I think, we should work out a package deal, which will help to form a stable government,'' he said.

But there could still be trouble for the pact on two counts: One, much to the surprise of the Congress, the NCP has now raised an objection over the election of Vilasrao Deshmukh as the leader of the Congress Legislature Party. NCP's contention was that Congress should not have made unilateral announcement, particularlywhen talks between the two parties were in progress.

A decision the Congress will loathe to reverse. Two, a split in the NCP. With Sena-BJP targeting its MLAs and a senior leader like Naik ready to walk over, the NCP could find it difficult hold itself together. If there's a split in the NCP, not only does it make a Sena-BJP government more likely but also make the numbers game that much more difficult for the Congress-NCP.

Talks between the two sides are, however, likely to begin as soon Congress leaders including state Congress chief Prataprao Bhosale and Vilasrao Deshmukh -- who are also armed with a Congress Working Committee approval to negotiate with the NCP -- return from New Delhi late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

WILL IT CRACK

The SENA-BJP Plan

  • Now that Thackeray has finally ruled out an alliance with the NCP, the Sena-BJP's efforts will be centred on breaking that party.

  • The ticklish issue then is whether or not the Anti-Defection Law is applicable to theNCP which is not a recognised party.

  • Sena-BJP will argue it does not apply because it may not be able to pull out 19 of the 56 MLAs from NCP.

  • Even if less than 19 NCP MLAs back it, the Sena, which says it has 141 already, will stake claim. If the breakaway group is disqualified, it works to the Sena's advantage as the strength of the House (now 288) will come down by that much and it'll have a majority.

    THE HITCH

  • The Congress and the NCP have revived their talks after the latter climbed down quite a bit and a spurned Pawar might just go the Congress way.

  • The Governor need not see things the way Sena-BJP does.

    Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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