The date of the presidential election, Sri Lanka's fourth since the executive presidency was introduced in 1982, will be set by the Elections Commissioner in three weeks. It may well be based on astrological predictions, but will certainly be by January 2000.

Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, the presidential candidate for the United National Party (UNP), greeted the announcement with a confident "I am ready, my party is ready and we will win". Signalling the beginning of a long, tough haul ahead, he was closeted in meetings throughout the day with party members.

Though speculation is rife about a third candidate, either an independent or a "consensus" Left parties nominee, it is not known yet for certain whether there will indeed be one or who this dark horse might be.

Kumaratunga still has a year to go beforefinishing her six-year term, but analysts are of the opinion that an early presidential election was the only option open to her to break the political impasse in parliament that has fettered her proposals to change the constitution and devolve power to the minorities.

The ruling People's Alliance(PA) has a majority of just one seat in parliament, whereas it needs two-thirds support to bring amendments in line with Kumaratunga's proposals for power-sharing with the Tamil minority.

At a recent ceremony to mark her government's fifth anniversary, she implored voters to give the PA a "clear mandate" in the next elections to change the country's "monstrous" constitution so that ethnic harmony could be restored in the country.

Parliamentary elections are due in August 2000, but ruling coalition MPs are uncertain about victory, let alone a massive majority, after five years in power in which little progress has been made on the key issue of the ethnic conflict, besides a host of economic and politicalissues.

The wisdom of holding the presidential elections first is that Kumaratunga is believed to be unaffected by the anti-incumbency factor and that her charisma alone will steamroller the opposition UNP. Ruling coalition MPs then hope to ride piggyback on her victory in the parliamentary elections that are bound to be held soon thereafter as Sri Lanka has never returned a split verdict.

It is also Kumaratunga's conviction that offering herself first for re-election and winning is the only way to ensure a larger majority for her coalition in Parliament.

Kumaratunga won the 1994 presidential -- in which Gamini Dissanayake, a strong contender for the post, was assassinated by the LTTE -- with a massive 62 per cent majority. Voters of the minority Tamil and Muslim communities backed her for her promise to quickly sort out the country's ethnic mess. However, even with all her charisma, it may not be such an easy ride for Kumaratunga this time. In the last elections, she brought a whiff of freshness tothe dark and murky political scenario that existed then. But she has squandered much of the goodwill in five years.

Not only was she unable to keep her main promise, an all-out war against the LTTE by her government has had adverse spin-off effects for the Tamil civilian population which now stands antagonised.

It is going to be very difficult for us to go and ask the Tamils to vote again for her," said TULF parliamentarian Mavai Senadhirajah. But, he added, the final decision on the party's plan for the election would be taken by the central committee.

The LTTE too is keen to see the back of Kumaratunga. In this context, Wickremsinghe's recent announcement that if elected, he will hold talks with the LTTE, is seen as significant.

In southern Sri Lanka, hardline nationalist Sinhala forces have been campaigning among the majority community against Kumaratunga and her proposals for devolution.