If the concerned constituencies had gone to polls with the rest of the state two weeks before, their verdicts may have been very different. Within a fortnight of what was proclaimed as a famous victory for the BJP-Samata-JD(U) bloc, the regional variant of the National Democratic Alli-ance has suffered a setback. There is no mistaking the message, for the BJP in particular. And, worse for it, there are signs that the message may be misinterpreted by its allies in the state.

The rejoicing in the NDA camp over the fall of Laloo Prasad Yadav and his Rashtriya Janata Dal, after a fodder scam-propelled decline, was evidently too soon. That ebullient purveyor ofendless political entertainment may yet have the last laugh.

Unless, of course, his opponents recover from their shock to learn the right lessons and in time. The 15-day wonder should warn them of how much can happen before the state assembly elections due early next year.

A curious mixture of explanations have been forthcoming for the results that represent a loss for the BJP of three Lok Sabha seats it had won the last time round. The convincing defeats to the CPI(M) and the Congress backed by the RJD and to an Independent cannot be entirely unrelated to the Centre's performance even in this brief period. The diesel price hike may indeed have elicited an indignant response. This could have been compounded by the government's hint at "harsh measures". The adversaries of the NDA, who presented no picture of unity in the earlier phases of the polls, can also claim to have got their act together at last with gratifying results.

The main factor, however, may be that the voters in these constituenciestreated the popular mandate for a stable government at the Centre and under Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee as established. That they wanted their verdict to be a warning against presuming the mandate to be unconditional and unqualified. It is a warning that needs to be heeded, and not as one from the voters of Bihar alone. There are many other states with their own strongmen whom only the people's priority for Central stability has vanquished. The four constituencies have also served notice that the Bihar assembly polls will be a different battle.

While the state BJP cannot expect the Vajpayee charisma to bail it out, it must anticipate defiance and demands from the JD(U), which has scored the only NDA win in this last round.

The BJP's loss is not the main Opposition's gain at the national level. The Congress has nothing much to crow about, even if it has wrested a seat from the BJP in Bihar and won another in Assam. It is far from certain if the differences over ties with the RJD will die down with asingle poll victory. The Dhubri win is more than offset by the loss in Man-ipur, which adds to the threat to the party in the No-rth-East from P. A. Sangma's Nationalist Congress Party. The BJP and the NDA may actually gain, if this last clutch of Lok Sabh poll results put paid to an extended euphoria in their camp.