In replacing Kalyan Singh with Gupta, the BJP leadership seems to have emulated the Congress in many ways. First, Kalyan was curtly told to tender his resignation. The party did not take him into its confidence on the choice of successor. Gupta was not elected by legislators but nominated by the party high command. Kalyan sulked, even momentarily declared his defiance, but affirmed his loyalty to his party in typical Congress style.

Gupta conceded he did nothad a free hand in running the government, but would have to consult the high command for major decisions. His Cabinet list was drawn up not in Lucknow but in Delhi, in consultation with party president Kushabhau Thakre and Home Minister L.K. Advani.

Over the last year, the BJP's state unit has been a live demonstration of open indiscipline, factionalism and, indeed, everything that the party has opposed since its inception. Kalyan's sack may be seen as a small surgical intervention upon a malignancy, but it is too premature to conclude that the disease afflicting the state unit and its government has been cured completely. The prognosis will depend on Gupta's success in stemming the ongoing factionalism in the state BJP.

For once, Kalyan Singh has failed to conceal his bitterness about the Prime Minister, and he is unlikely to take the humiliation lying down. The party's decision to drop ministers loyal to him from the Cabinet has only rubbed salt into his wounds. The degree of insult could be reduced ifsome of them are re-inducted in future expansions, but the sense of humiliation is likely to linger on nevertheless. Besides, the party has cut him down to size by reversing major decisions taken by him in his last days in office. They included the appointment of his protege Kusum Rai as chairperson of the state Commission for Women.

Gupta is on good terms with Kusum Rai -- her father Mahatam Rai was a close friend and he can breathe easy for the time being. But Kalyan is unlikely to lower the pitch of his tirade against Vajpayee, and this may spell trouble for Gupta at a later stage.

The differences between Vajpayee and Kalyan Singh first surfaced over the issue of propping up Mayawati's government in April, 1995. Kalyan's objections were overruled and he struck back four months later by persuading the party leadership through his mentor Advani, then party president -- to pull it down. Kalyan had argued that the BJP's ploy to win over Dalits had failed actually, Mayawati had consolidating her Dalitvote-bank.

Kalyan had also developed a grudge against Vajpayee loyalist Lalji Tandon, who was instrumental in forging a BJP-BSP accord in 1995. His differences with Vajpayee deepened when, stuck at its previous tally of 177 Assembly seats the 1996, the BJP had to lean on Mayawati again. This was the musical-chairs coalition, with Mayawati and Kalyan acting as CM for six months each. The accord was reached on Vajpayee's intervention.

From the sidelines, Kalyan watched Mayawati call the shots while the BJP members in her Cabinet, Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon, remaining mute spectator. On assuming power in September 1997, Kalyan reversed almost all major decisions taken by Mayawati despite strong protests by Mishra and Tandon. He managed to survive by splitting almost all major parties after Mayawati withdrew support a month later. Rajnath Singh, who had become state BJP president after Mishra joined the government, played a major role in this operation.

Rajnath again helped Kalyan tide over a crisisafter some Nationalist Congress Party MLAs withdrew their support to prop up Jagdambika Pal as chief minister with the support of the Samajwadi Party, BSP and Congress. But that was the end of all bonhomie in the UP unit. Kalyan cocooned himself within a coterie of friends and depended more on his allies LCP, Jantantrik BSP and JD(R) to reduce his reliance on his own party leaders, causing much heartburn and dissidence.

Most of the dissidents were close to Vajpayee and Rajnath, and the schism between them and Kalyan naturally grew. The leadership's inaction against those who openly demanded Kalyan's removal did not help matters either. The last straw was the denial of tickets to some Kalyan loyalists in the 1998 elections Sakshi Maharaj being the most prominent name and the appointment of Kalyan-baiters like Rajesh Pandey and Tandon as Vajpayee's campaign managers in Lucknow.

Kalyan's antipathy towards Vajpayee came into the open when the former curtailed his campaign programmes on the excuse ofillness. A large number of BJP candidates accused him of having instructed his loyalists to work against the official party nominees. The result: the BJP's tally of MPs from UP was halved from 57 in 1998 to 29 in 1999. Kalyan tried to share out the blame with Vajpayee, whom he accused of promoting factionalism and failing to secure the votes of his own caste-folk, the Brahmins in central UP.

But no one, not even a mentor like Advani, who shielded him against all demands for his removal, could come to his rescue this time. ``He can't get away after murdering the party,'' said a party office-bearer in Delhi. The action against him was delayed only by the search for a successor who could take everyone in the BJP along. Gupta fits the bill, but only in theory so far. Whether he can really contain factionalism will be known after Kalyan has played all his cards.

A wounded Kalyan is now maintaining a low profile. By turning down a berth in the Vajpayee cabinet as well as in the central party unit, he hasensured freedom from all codes of conduct. He can speak his mind as and when needed. His strategy, according to his close confidantes, is to wait for the Gupta experiment to fail. Of course, his choices are limited. Most of the 155 MLAs who had signed a memorandum to the party high command demanding his retention as CM have already deserted him in the hope of office in Gupta's dispensation.

Today, Kalyan Singh is a confused man. He could have played either the backward card by aligning with Mulayam Singh Yadav, or the Hindutva card. He chose the latter, destroying all chances of a backward polarisation. He is a lonely man today, and deeply hurt. Unless he is handled with kid gloves, he could prove to be the BJP's nemesis in the heartland.