The excess stocking is so high, that if the offtake remains at the current level of around 7 lakh tonne a month, there will be no need to do any procurement of grain in the next season in April. Going by current trends, in April 2000 the country will have a stock of 162 lakh tonne, enough to feed the country's public distribution system (PDS) for a full year.

Nor is the government able to offload this stock in the open market because the wheat from public granaries costs around Rs 700 per quintal as compared to around Rs 450 for imports which are currently coming in, though of a inferior grade.

And despite this alarming excess stocking -- on October 1, the stock was 204 lakh tonne as against the recommended buffer of 116 lakh tonne -- imports continue to land at Indian ports. This time around, there's a twist. When sugar imports flooded the Indian market some months ago despite the adequate domestic stocks, the government's defence was that this was being done by private parties over whom it had no control. Well, this time around wheat is being imported by government agencies themselves. Ninety per cent of the wheat imported over the last few months has been by three government agencies -- State Trading Corporation (STC), Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation (MMTC) and Project Engineering Corporation (PEC).

Despite the high stocks held by the government, last year 14.14 lakh tonne of wheat were imported, and in the first seven months of this year around 15 lakh tonne of wheat have already been imported.

On April 1, the country opened the year with wheat stocks of 99.2 lakh tonne against a mandatory requirement of 40 lakh tonne. The inventories rose to 216.35 lakh tonne after the procurement season earlier this year. Even if the current consumption levels of around 7 lakh tonne per month from the central pool are accounted for, on April 1, 2000, the opening stocks for the fresh season are likely to be 162 lakh tonne which may mean no procurement of wheat would be required during the entire wheat harvest season next year as consumption of wheat from the central pool is estimated to be 100 t0 110 lakh tonne in an entire year.

The Vajpayee Government which took flak from Opposition parties during the elections for its policy on sugar imports, seems to be repeating its mistakes on the wheat import front now. With sugar, the government wriggled out of a tough situation by putting the blame on the doorstep of private importers as sugar imports were allowed under the OGL (Open General Licence) scheme. On the wheat front however, the blame may have to be borne by the government itself.