Like Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel has proved many a pollster wrong. Under him, the BJP has actually increased its Lok Sabha tally from the state by one, in spite of the water scarcity in Saurashtra and recurring anti-minority violence. But there the similarity ends.If Naidu has reconciled political compulsions with the demands of modernisation to propel AP ahead, Patel plods along in the worn-out rut of populism. If Naidu has used information technology to bring transparency and accountability into administration, Patel's experiment of parivartan has lost its battle with bureaucratic sloth. If Naidu has reached out to transnational giants like Microsoft and persuaded them to invest in AP, Patel is yet to get his act together.
Indeed, efforts are being made to attract industrial investment to the state. Keshubhai Patel recent held meetings with delegations from different countries to that end. But again unlike Naidu, who woos big investors individually andcomes back with firm commitments, Patel's lectures to foreign delegations during the India International Trade Fair in Delhi last week, and earlier in Mumbai, are generalised appeals.
In fact, since Patel became chief minister for the second time 19 months ago, industrial investment has been declining, unproductive expenditure and the fiscal deficit are rising and the rate of return from sales tax falling. But he has refused to push for reform or take corrective measures.
He was adamant even in December 1998, when the Asian Development Bank held back a $100 million tranche of a loan for structural reform because the government was slow in getting rid of public sector white elephants, cut down on subsidies, and restructure the power sector. Now, one year later, an ADB team has just visited the state and found that same lack of urgency.
For long, industry has been the mainstay of Gujarat's economy. But in recent years, new players like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have been attracting more and moreinvestment, while in Gujarat the growth rate of industrial investment has fallen from 17 per cent in 1996 to 13 per cent. Sunil Parekh, Director of the Gujarat unit of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), is modest when he says, ``The state government's performance on the industrial sector is not as we had expected.''
Parikh hopes that political stability in the state will improve matters in the previous four years, there had bee as many chief ministers. But industrialists complain that decision-making takes too long and the government's priorities seem to be all mixed up.
Take the proposal to set up an info-city, which was announced with much fanfare last year. Patel inaugurated work on the site in February in the presence of Gujarat's own cyber whizkid Sam Pitroda. Since then, nothing has been actually done on the ground. Now, the government has, in its wisdom, decided to take a private building and make an `info-tower' in Ahmedabad. It had set up Gujarat Informatics Limited (GIL) to engineer anIT revolution in the state, but has now roped in Gujarat Narmada Fertilisers Corporation which, as the name speaks, manufactures fertilisers. IT MInister Bimal Shah insists that the land acquired for the info-city will actually be used for this purpose. But motives are being attributed to the government's inaction and its credibility has become suspect.
Nor is Gujarat any longer a well-managed state. Rising unproductive expenditure has sent the fiscal deficit ballooning to more than the prudent limit of five per cent of the state's domestic product, while sales tax growth has fallen to six per cent from an average of nine per cent in the past. Instead of shoring up resources, slashing subsidies and downsizing the government, Patel has been talking of abolishing octroi.
Yet, this is a chief minister who started his innings on a positive note with novel ideas, like a Parivartan Cell to find quick and practical answers to people's problems. His proposed Infrastructure Development Board and his plans for thefuture through the Vision 2010 project also held promise.``But the problem is everything is handled by the bureaucracy, whereas perspective planning should be through wider consultation and public participation,'' says political analyst Dinesh Shukla.
Party leaders point to other problems. ``He (the chief minister) has some competent ministers, but doesn't trust them. The party has a big majority in the Assembly, but he does not seem to know how to use this strength'', remarked a senior leader.
Officers complain that Patel can't take decisions; he keeps himself and others tied down in long, fruitless meetings. And it so happens that he holds a clutch of crucial portfolios like Home, General Administration, Roads and Buildings, Rural Development and Information and Housing, besides all policy matters pertaining to Industries, Minerals, Power, Narmada, and Ports. In the words of an industrialist, Patel wants to be ``Kesha-bapa, the feudal Big Chief, who will change the world.'' Actually, he is ``the mostineffective Chief Minister'' the state has ever had, says political analyst Siddharth Bhat. This is particularly obvious in crises. Recall the anti-Christian violence in Dangs last year, which persisted in spite of Patel's statements of good intent. He did not even think it fit to visit the area because no one had died, until Prime Minister Vajpayee himself flew down from Delhi.
Sums up social activist Achyut Yagnik: ``This is the age of globalisation and technology, but we have a chief minister who can't communicate effectively in any language other than Gujarati, doesn't understand modern complexities, isn't too well educated and also lacks that rustic sixth sense of Vasantrao Patil, Jinabhai Darji or Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.''
Bimal Shah says the government's top priorities are drinking water, power, roads and education, and ``by 2001, not a single village will be without water. We have made and repaired approach roads in rural areas, given 15 computers each to 1,400 schools, and there has been nopower cut in either industry or the farm sector.''
Should one, then, assume that all is well with the government's welfare schemes? But the Comptroller and Auditor-General (CAG) has found that tribal girls, who are given bicycles as incentives to check the drop-out rate, often get them after they are through with their studies, and as many as 1.5 lakh tribals eligible for land titles are still waiting though allotment began in 1995, when the BJP first assumed power in the state.
Copyright © 1999 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.