`Soon your refrigerator would email you if you haven't ordered milk'

`Soon your refrigerator would email you if you haven't ordered milk'

DECEMBER 12: The internet has turned established business models upside down and re-written rules for success. It has provided a new channel to the customer, while opening up immense opportunities for growth. In a relatively short span of time, it has spawned a new breed of loss-making firms with huge market capitalisation.

Vinton Cerf, the man who pioneered this amazing revolution, is still very much in business as senior vice-president for internet architecture at MCI WorldCom. Cerf co-designed the TCP/IP internet protocol and the architecture of the internet. He was also the founding president of the Internet Society. N SHIVAPRIYA met Cerf and discussed some important issues addressed by the `Father of the Internet' during his recent visit to India. Excerpts from the interview:

Internet penetration in India is still quite low. What is the potential for businesses which move on to the net?
It is still valid for businesses to consider moving to the net and serve customers outsideIndia in places like North America where internet penetration is high. The other day I received an e-mail proposal for web page production from an engineer in Bangalore! More than half the internet users (112.4 million) are concentrated in North America because that's where the net began. Europe has 47.15 million users, the Asia-Pacific has 33.61 million.

Commercial interest in the net has been rising over the last two years. Comment.
Internet technology is 25 years old but commercial exploitation of the net started only five years ago. The first commercial e-mail service, MCI Mail, was linked to the internet only in 1990. In 1995, the United States' government retired NSFNet, the scientific backbone provider.

Last year it removed itself from domain name services. Business models associated with the internet are relatively new and are by no means stable.

Who will make money in the internet gold rush?
In 1848, it was the California gold rush. Hundred and fifty years later it is theinternet and the stock market. But you should remember that the people who made money in the gold rush were not necessarily the ones who were looking for it. Those who made money were the ones who supplied the picks and shovels.

What are the challenges involved in transactions over the Internet?
Cisco sells 80 per cent of goods and services over the net. It helps the company save half a billion dollars a year. Intel started selling on the web in 1998. In 15 days it had booked orders worth $ 1 billion. Forrester Research predicts business on net will be $ 1.8 trillion to $ 2.8 trillion by 2003 5 to 10 per cent of the world economy.

Taxation is a huge problem. There is increasing government interest in taxation. The question of jurisdiction is unclear. If everybody tries to tax, e-commerce might be stifled. Policy issues will be as important and hard to resolve as the technological challenges.

What devices will be connected to internet?
By 2002, there will be 56 millioninternet-enabled devices. Already, we have devices like WebTV, Palmpilot, and Nokia 9000. The Nokia 9000 is a pager, cell phone and e-mail station. Sega and Nintendo games are going on the net. In 2006, there will be 900 million devices connected to the internet not all of them will be laptops or desktops.

You could have an internet enabled refrigerator. It can keep track of what goes in and goes out. Soon you could be receiving e-mail from your refrigerator if you haven't ordered milk for three weeks. Bathroom scales could be net enabled to automatically send an e-mail to your doctor. I believe videoconferencing will emerge from Sega and Nintendo games and not from traditional businesses.

What are you working on now?
We are now building a stable inter-planetary network as part of the Mars mission plan. It will be network of internets as opposed to the internet which is a network of networks.

Eventually each planet will have an internet and the planets will send messages to each other usinginter-planetary protocol (similar to the internet protocol, Cerf co-designed). The problems in space communication are the same as those affecting mobile communication. As size, weight and power increase, cost goes up. There might be an opportunity to commercialise space. Right now, it is too expensive to put things in orbit.