US says Pak nuclear arsenal superior to India

US says Pak nuclear arsenal superior to India
Chidanand Rajghatta

WASHINGTON, JUNE 7: Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is vastly superior to that of India with perhaps five times the nuclear warheads. It also has greater means and preparedness of delivering them.

NBC News reported this on Wednesday in what could be a stunning reversal of balance of power in the region.

Based on what it said was a reassessment of the South Asian nuclear equation by US officials following the May 1998 nuclear tests, NBC said two years of intelligence gathering suggested that conventional wisdom about the capabilities of India's home-grown arsenal was overstated. In contrast, Pakistan's capability, which relies on generous Chinese assistance, was understated.

The general assumption made by policy-makers and analysts in recent years was that India has between 25 and 100 nuclear warheads while Pakistan has between 10 and 15 weapons.

But US intelligence officials now say Pakistanis are more likely to have those numbers (25 to 100 weapons) than the Indians. Perhaps most important, NBC quoted one unnamed official as saying, is that Pakistan appears far more capable than India of delivering nuclear payloads.

``I don't think their (the Indian) programme is as advanced as thePakistanis,'' the unnamed official said, speaking particularly of ballisticmissiles. The comment was buttressed by another from Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni, commander of the US Central Command, who said longtime assumptions that India had an edge in the South Asian strategic balance of power were questionable, at best.

``Don't assume that the Pakistani nuclear capability is inferior to the Indians,'' said Zinni, whose CentCom has geographic oversight over Pakistan.

The NBC report was co-authored by Robert Windrem, an investigative producer with the network who is also the author of Critical Mass, a widely-referred book on nuclear proliferation.

The NBC report, if true, would shatter the smug assumptions in India about its conventional and nuclear superiority.

The report did say though that India has realised that is behind and is moving to address its shortcomings.

India could have got an inkling of Pakistani capability during the tit-for-tat nuclear tests itself, when Isamabad claimed to have exploded six nuclear devices. Such an exhibition would have seriously depleted its arsenal if it was as small as what Indian and western analysts had assumed.

Latest US reports suggest that ``India probably has a handful of nuclear bombs,'' perhaps only about five. With regard to delivery systems, the missiles and bombers needed to launch a nuclear strike.'' US officials now believe Indian capabilities to be seriously lagging.

According to a Defence Department document, India has no nuclear-capable missiles and fewer aircraft capable of delivering a nuclear payload than Pakistan does. India has twice tested a new intermediate-ranged missile, the Agni, which may eventually provide the basis of a nuclear missile force.

However, NBC report provided another stunner, claiming that current US analysis suggests the Agni will not be fielded with nuclear warheads for another 10 years. Additionally, India appears to only have only now begun work on missile warhead design and on the miniaturization of weapons, two critical hurdles to the actual use of weapons.

The US assessment of Pakistan, on the other hand, has been greatly upgraded, NBC said. A US official stated that Pakistani air and missile delivery systems are now believed to be `fully capable of a nuclear exchange if something happens.''

Other officials noted that Pakistan's air force, with its US F-16s and its French Mirage fighter-bombers, are superior at penetrating enemy airspace than India's Soviet-designed MiGs and Sukhois.

Most importantly, Pakistan is now thought to possess about 30 nuclear-capable missiles: The Chinese M-11 short-range missile and its Pakistani variant, the Tarmuk, as well as the North Korean Nodong intermediate-range missile (known locally as the Ghauri).