NMD can trigger arms race in Asia

NMD can trigger arms race in Asia
Dean Mathew

Never was a missile test-flight watched so intensely by the whole world as the one recently conducted under the US National Missile Defence (NMD) programme. The result was an unqualified public embarrassment for the US. In a strange twist of events, the failure of the mission may prove to be an exit route for President Clinton, caught between the Republicans clamouring for a more ambitious missile defence programme and the Democrats who consider the system too risky. Now he has to contend with mounting criticism from the US intelligentsia, which questions the viability of such a system. Also, what happened, or did not happen, on July 7 can provide the world a platform to appeal to the US to see reason and abandon the NMD.

While the US obsession with building its own security fortress is cause enough to alarm every other nation, conscience-keepers in that country -- scientists, activists -- are heatedly debating the technical viability of the concept. Intriguingly, too, India, home to one-sixth of humanity, has been maintaining a silence of the ``it doesn't affect us'' variety!

According to the US, its homeland is going to be the most insecure place to live in by 2005. And, guess who is responsible for this? Puny little `rogue' nations like North Korea and Libya. In the stretched list figure other usual suspects like Iran, Iraq and nations which are not in conflict with the US currently, but are in `uncertain' transitions. Unauthorised or accidental launches from the existing nuclear powers are also feared. No wonder, friends and foes alike find the argument hard to digest. Especially, when the US says its current stockpile of about 6,000 nuclear warheads and its global reach are not good enough to deter an attack by an `irrational' actor!

The list of real NMD casualties begins with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty signed between the US and the former Soviet Union. Here was a treaty singularly responsible for brokering peace when the world was blissfully asleep over a pile of more than 60,000 nuclear warheads. The Russians made clear their opposition to attempts to abrogate the treaty and threatened to withdraw from all arms control agreements in such a case. Russians are threatening to return to the Cold War practice of building multiple-warhead missiles and intermediate range missiles that could hit Europe. The distressed European allies of the US fear that the developments will create lopsided security zones, rendering them more vulnerable than the US.

Look at Asia. The US administration's own admission -- that among the existing nuclear arsenals, it is China's which could really be neutralised by an NMD with 100 interceptors -- has left the latter red in the face. In response, China has made it clear that it is embarking on plans to hike five-fold its nuclear arsenal.

Remember the most passionate reaction from the Western capitals to the Pokharan tests of 1998? It was about how the weaponisation of both India and Pakistan had set off a dangerous arms race in South Asia and the region hadbecome a nuclear flashpoint in an otherwise peaceful world. And, now there is a strong conviction in the West, even among American officials, that the NMD will actually set off a nuclear arms race in Asia.

American officials are certain that China will augment its arsenal of about 20 nuclear weapons that could reach the US to a minimum 100 against 100 interceptors of the NMD. This fivefold increase in China's arsenal will upset India's assessment about its survivable, credible, minimum deterrence. If India decides to augment its arsenal, that will prompt Pakistan to take suitable action. The outcome will be that Asia will be pushed into a nuclear arms race by the US search for security through the NMD.

The question, ultimately, is about the future of the world. The obsession ofthe US with its security may spell doom thousands of kilometers away -- in Asia. The world's most privileged society needs to spare a moment's thought for the rest even if it is in the midst of a presidential election campaign. And, since one in every six men in the world is an Indian, it is time we woke up to the moral responsibilities thus thrust on us. After all, recognition in any fora -- including the UN -- can only follow acts of responsibility.

The author is a Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi