US concern for Taiwan puts India's security in jeopardy

US concern for Taiwan puts India's security in jeopardy
Chidanand Rajghatta

WASHINGTON, JULY 13: In the latest twist to complex strategic developments unfolding in Asia, China and North Korea have indicated that they will play the proliferation game by their rules if the United States goes ahead and builds a missile defence system. In as many words, they have said they will continue to supply Pakistan, and possible other Middle East countries, with advanced missile technology if the US does not call off its missile defence plan.

The US has exacerbated the situation by suggesting that it may consider providing Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province, with a limited missile defence shield.

The Chinese and Korean counter -- which would have grim and far-reaching consequences for India -- comes amid US efforts to check their proliferation activity while explaining its own missile defence effort. US Defence Secretary William Cohen is in Beijing to plead Washington's case, while US non-proliferation honcho Robert Einhorn is in Kuala Lumpur engaging the Koreans.

But both countries have said they will examine the US pressure on curbing proliferation in the light of Washington's own moves on missile defence.

The US media is reporting that Chinese officials in particular have told Washington that if the US exports technology to Taiwan for a theatre missile defence on that island, then they will continue to sell missile technology to Pakistan, and possibly to countries in the Middle East. Some reports suggest the US has already made a call: Taiwan is more important to its interest than South Asia edging towards greater confrontation.

"The US is going to have to make a decision," one "western source" familiar with US-China arms control talks was quoted as saying in the Washington Post. "Are US arms sales or Theatre Missile Defence sales to Taiwan more important than whatever China is doing with Pakistan? So far, I think they have decided Taiwan is more important."

Such a development will leave India out on the limb. Not only is New Delhi labouring to get a move on with its indigenous nuclear and missile effort, but even its slow progress is subject to US scrutiny, pressure, and sanctions.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and other US intelligence agencies have reported that China has stepped up its provision of key components and technical expertise for the development by Pakistan of long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons, US lawmakers say.

"As we work to heighten our cooperation with India on such issues as security, non-proliferation and combating terrorism, it seems inconsistent not to hold China accountable for actions that directly threaten the security of India and which will inevitably spur a heightened arms race on the subcontinent," Congressman Frank Pallone said in a statement.

Even that may not be enough given the years of coddling by China and Korea of Pakistan's nuclear and missile programmes.

Despite gradual normalisation of ties between India and the US following the nuclear tests in May 1998, the two sides have only a rudimentary defence relationship because of a long and distrustful history that goes back to the days of the Cold War.

Indian efforts to overcome the mistrust is stymied both by its own deep-rooted suspicion of the United States, and Washington's inability to break out of its sanctions-centric foreign policy.

Both sides could get a chance to review all this when Prime Minister Vajpayee visits Washington in September.

Certainly, the changing security environment in Asia is forcing the United States to re-orient its strategic thinking away from Europe and the Middle East, its traditional and primary areas of concern. Washington is now in the thick of a tangled skein that involves China, Russia, the Koreas, Pakistan, Taiwan and India to name a few countries, and new paradigms could be in the making.