Straight Face
                                 _________________PAMELA PHILIPOSE

Rupee tales

I began by studying capital flows, export market trends and levels of inflation.

Money is not everything, as they say. In fact, going by the current value of the rupee, it may very shortly be nothing at all and we may all have to go back to using salt, pepper and cowrie shells as items of currency (which won’t be such a bad thing after all—there’s poetic justice in being able to acquire a buyable MP, referred to as namak haram in polite circles, for 30 bags of salt).

Remember how your grandmother would tell you tales of how a rupee in the good old days would get you a whole year’s supply of rice, 12 silk saris with a couple of Persian carpets thrown in? Well, it’s a bit hard to believe that fantasy today, when the Ashokan lions engraved on the coin of the realm appear to mew like pussycats, when waiters in Udipi restaurants insist on being tipped only in dollars and beggars fling coins back at you if you dare insult their intelligence by handing them one.
But, seriously, this is not intended to be another one of those flippant, pointless Straight Face pieces but a rigorous examination of why the rupee finds itself on skid row. However, by way of clarification, I must state that I am not Bimal Jalan, governor of the Reserve Bank (and terribly grateful I am for this small mercy, I may add. Imagine being held responsible for every dip the rupee registers and having to come up with plausible explanations each time) and therefore you are welcome not to take my views seriously.

Given the general economic theory that if there are 15 economists in a room, you will have at least 16 opinions, I decided not to entrust these eggheads, boiled eggheads that is, with the onerous task of explaining the rupee’s fall from grace. I therefore decided to rely on my own research and began by examining capital flows, export market trends and the correlation between capital flows, exchange rate movements and levels of inflation. While I was about it, I also took a peek at the performance of the Hong Kong currency board, while carefully scrutinising FII behaviour. At the end of these labours I came up with at least three promising conspiracy theories that could throw some light on the conundrum at hand.

Conspiracy theory No 1 is very believable. The rupee’s decline is nothing but a CIA conspiracy to get us to sign the CTBT. You may have noticed that all this while, as our rupee was getting more anaemic by the hour, the dollar was riding high in monetary markets the world over. This is because secret CIA agents, dressed up as pot-bellied, paan-chewing Gujarati stockbrokers, complete with underarm sweat patches and diamond rings on all fingers, had decided to vacuum out the dollars from our markets with a view to pulverising our foreign currency reserves. As soon as they complete their diabolic mission, Bill Clinton will hold a gun to our temple and drawl, ‘‘The CTBT or your life.’’

Now, if you don’t believe this, how does Conspiracy No 2 strike you? It is nothing but a strategy launched by the organisers of Kaun Banega Crorepati?. You may have noticed—and I certainly have—that the rupee began seriously sliding once this popular game show came on air. What, you may ask, is the connection between the two phenomena? It’s quite elementary, really. By the time someone really hits the jackpot of a crore, the sum may be worth just enough to buy him/her a three-day holiday to Kathmandu for two in the ‘Yak and Yeti’ (which is what the more conventional TV game shows offer anyway).

Conspiracy No 3 is my personal favourite. It is suddenly discovered that Messrs Veerappan and Co of Satyamangalam forests have amassed more reserves —in foreign currency, ivory and sandalwood—than the Government of India, leading to a serious loss of confidence in the national currency.

Fortunately, this is only a passing phase. Once Veerappan’s demands are met and the brigand goes on to become the Prime Minister of the country, he has promised to personally prop up the rupee with all the sandalwood at his command. Which is one more reason why Jayapradha must tie that rakhi on him.

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