Talks get a chance as Track II gains momentum

Talks get a chance as Track II gains momentum
NEERJA CHOWDHURY

NEW DELHI, NOVEMBER 26: Serious attempts are on to reopen the peace process in Jammu and Kashmir which could lead to negotiations between the Government and Kashmiri militants on one bilateral track, between India and Pakistan on another and a possible trilateral one later at the request of the Kashmiri leaders.

Everything hinges on the extent to which the ceasefire, announced by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee during Ramzan, sticks.

The presence Mansoor Ijaz, seen by many in Indian circles as US President Bill Clinton's secret envoy, in Delhi this weekend and the sudden momentum given to Track II diplomacy on Jammu and Kashmir, indicate which way the wind is blowing.

Indications are that Ijaz will visit Islamabad within the week to presumably meet Pervez Musharraf with a view to giving fresh impetus to thepeace process. Ijaz was in Delhi ostensibly for attending the symposium on Jammu and Kashmir organised in Gurgaon but was also reportedly in touch with officials in the Prime Minister's Office.

Talking to The Indian Express, Ijaz said, ``The Indian Prime Minister hasvisibly improved the climate for peaceful negotiations by unilaterallydeclaring a ceasefire. Now we must work hard to persuade Pakistan toreciprocate by encouraging the Mujahedeen groups to join our efforts forpeace without conditionalities.''

He added: ``General Musharraf must find this moment to demonstrate his control over the national security affairs of Pakistan and use his leverage with militant outfits to induce peaceful dialogue. The bar for peace is being ratcheted higher to the point where Pakistan will either have to respond or be cast as the failed partner for peace.''

So far, Musharraf's response to India's offer has been lukewarm. Hetold Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Khan Lone two days ago: ``India should improve upon the steps it has taken earlier.''

Ijaz is hopeful of a more positive response because the situation inPakistan is deteriorating and it faces the threat of becoming``dysfunctional.'' ``Pakistan is on the edge of a precipice, facingeconomic bankruptcy and political disintegration simultaneously. It hasa military within which the hawks and the doves are fiercely competingto set the national agenda, often at conflict with one another'sobjectives. The question to be asked is at what point do those who areentrusted with ensuring the life and longevity of the country find`jehad' a counterproductive strategy to insuring national security.''

Even six months ago, Ijaz said, the question of time remained fluid.``Today, the answer is clear, Pakistan has very little time left torespond.''

For that reason, the factors that led to the withdrawal of the Julyceasefire may not remain as decisive as they were four months ago. Theceasefire, according to the man who has emerged as the key intermediaryin the peace process, had collapsed for three reasons. Musharraffailed to publicly embrace the ceasefire he had privately initiated withHizbul Mujahideen leader Syed Salahuddin. Second, Salahuddin had notbeen able to develop a consensus among Mujahideen groups when faced bythreats from Pakistan's Islamic fundamentalists. And finally, Vajpayee'ssupport collapsed because he was pushed into a corner by hawks on theissue of ``Constitution and disputed territory.''

In the last few days, several Hurriyat leaders have welcomed Vajpayee's ceasefire offer and have reportedly sent the government feelers for talks. JKLF chief Yasin Malik, who reportedly met with Ijaz on Sunday over lunch, has described the Government's action as ``bold'' and Mirwaiz Omar Farooq called for the ceasefire to be followed up by ``practical measures.''

There are moves on by the Hurriyat to try and develop some kind of ajoint platform with the Hizbul Mujahideen before sitting across thetable with the Government.

The idea is to bring Pakistan to the negotiating table at the outsetof the political discussions after the ceasefire has taken hold, firstbilaterally and then at the Kashmiris' request, trilaterally. NewDelhi, Ijaz asserted, had agreed to this. ``It was an idea born frombrainstorming sessions with the Government of India and I applaud themfor having the political courage to accept it,'' he said.

The idea of a unilateral ceasefire by India has apparently been on theanvil since September after Vajpayee returned from his trip to the USA.It came up for discussion between Vajpayee and Clinton and Ijaz isbelieved to have discussed it with a senior national security aide ofVajpayee as well. After the Cabinet Committee on Security cleared it,the Prime Minister invited Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister FarooqAbdullah to apprise him of the idea before announcing it at a meeting ofthe NDA.

The 39-year-old MIT graduate, whose parents left Pakistan in 1960, describes his efforts at citizen diplomacy as a tireless pursuit for justice for those whose voices have become disenfranchised.