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Friday, December 22, 2000

Kashmir Ceasefire Monitor

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A new tango


By extending the ceasefire beyond the initial Eid deadline, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has taken his Jammu and Kashmir peace initiative into its second phase. In a rare display of winter warmth, India and Pakistan on Thursday made statements of intent that indicate a welcome, and requisite, attitudinal shift. On the one hand, Vajpayee extended the scope of the ceasefire by committing India to a dialogue process with Pakistan and byiterating his government's resolve to ``initiate such exploratory steps as are considered necessary'' to navigate back to the negotiation table. In doing so, he has ably enlarged his constituency for peace. One, he has protracted the relative respite the people of J&K have been relishing for the past four weeks from the decade-long gale of militant ambushes and security operations; indeed, they have been accorded a long overdue chance to explore the benefits of peace. Two, he has given moderate factions within the separatist establishment in the state to fashion a consensus on the ceasefire and offer of talks. Three, in a dramatic departure from strident post-Kargil rhetoric, Vajpayee has hinted at including Islamabad within the ambit of the thus far with-Kashmiris-only initiative. In other words, while addressing Pakistan's fear of being inched out of the peace process, he has politely stated India's concerns about cross-border terrorism.

On the other hand, by responding with alacrity to the ceasefire extension by announcing a partial withdrawal of troops from the Line of Control, Pakistan seems to have confirmed a shift in its Kashmir strategy. Most importantly, it has indicated that this time round it is not determined to play spoiler, that it would in fact be desirous of participating in any negotiations that ensue. Pakistan has also in recent weeks appeared amenable to Hurriyat leaders conducting separate talks with New Delhi and with Islamabad -- this is a marked departure from its earlier insistence that Kashmir was a purely bilateral matter, that there was no need for a dialogue between New Delhi and the separatists. Interestingly, the fact that the announcements in New Delhi and Islamabad on Thursday were almost simultaneous indicates backroom engagement between the two countries.

If all this provides ample cause for optimism, scanning past instances of substantive engagement between the two countries -- which inevitably collapsed in a sea of semantics -- highlights the need for caution. Instead, the one lesson from the past month should be heeded: The benefits of holding the peace. It is clear now that cessation of hostilities on the ground isimperative to enable any dialogue, any reasoned and nuanced exchange to take place. Indeed, this is the one proof of sincerity all parties in the current initiative need to present. For Kashmiri separatists it means wagging a chiding finger at the "boys". For Pakistan it entails giving further proof of its commitment to enforcing "maximum restraint", evidence that the phrase is its polite euphemism for also reining in the jehadis. And for India it underlines the need to go the extra mile to guard the peace.

Copyright © 2000 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

   

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