Exports rise 20.6 pc in Apr-Nov

Exports rise 20.6 pc in Apr-Nov

NEW DELHI, JAN 1: India's exports jumped by a handsome 20.56 per cent to $28.61 billion in the eight months to November 2000 in data released on Monday, but analysts said they expected growth to ease in a slowdown reflecting world trade.

The government said the figures for 1999 were revised, but did not give the reasons or by how much the figures had been revised. Analysts said the change was substantial. "There has been a major revision in the November 1999 exports. Based on the earlier estimate of $3.3 billion in November 1999, the growth this November is just eight per cent," Chetan Ahya, economist with Morgan Stanley, told Reuters.

Ahya said Indian exports had a strong correlation with overall world trade and growth was likely to decelerate in the months to come. "This is in line with the sharp deceleration in exports inregional countries like China, Taiwan and Korea," he said.

Non-oil imports sluggish: Government data showed that overall imports grew 14.44 percent to $34.79 billion compared with $30.4 billion in the year-ago period. Oil imports rose nearly 83 percent at $11.35 billion in the eight months to November from $6.2 billion in the year-ago period. But import growth in other goods continued to be sluggish, which analysts said reflected the overall sluggishness in the manufacturing sector.

Non-oil imports fell 3.13 percent to $23.4 billion during April-November 2000 from $24.2 billion in the year-ago period. "Along with continued low industrial production growth, sustained lower rate of manufacturing inflation, non-oil imports have fallen," said MR Madhavan, vice-president, research at Bank of America.

India's index of industrial production rose by 5.7 per cent in the April-October period compared with 6.7 per cent in the same period a year ago reflecting a sluggish growth in manufacturing.

Analysts said slowing exports were unlikely to adversely affect the trade balance as non-oil imports were expected to be sluggish and with world oil prices expected to remain steady.