Pakistan awaits the Bush hand

Pakistan awaits the Bush hand
Saeed Naqvi

It was on July 24 last year that the Hizbul Mujahideen announced a ceasefire. The step had promise because, of all the militant groups, the Hizb was primarily home grown in the Valley. Immediately other groups, controlled across the border, got active. The Pahalgam massacre was the result.

Despite the setback, Union Home Secretary Kamal Pandey and other senior officials turned up in Srinagar to pick up the dialogue with the militants on the mend. Clearly, this bilateralism between New Delhi and the more difficult elements in the Valley was not according to any script approved by Islamabad. Then came Syed Salahuddin's retraction. Clearly, this did not find favour across the border either. Syed Salahuddin was removed from the presidentship of the United Jehad Council, a group of a dozen organisations pursuing Islamic jehad in diverse ways.

New Delhi's enthusiastic response to the Hizbul Mujahideen had some clear goals: We sort out our affairs with militants from the Valley; you embark on the monumental task of establishing some coherence among the maze of militant outfits sprawling all over Punjab. This, latter effort, would come in handy should there ever be a change of heart on your side to put a stop to cross border terrorism.

Even if some sort of a coherence is established in the United Jehad Council, Islamabad still has militant groups outside the apex body to disrupt promising processes in the Valley. Harkat-ul-Ansar and Lashkar-e-Toiba, for instance.

In other words, a minefield where every step must be placed carefully, has to be negotiated to render Kashmir hospitable to a sustained peace process. Only a real change of heart in Islamabad can bring about those circumstances. And even a cursory look at Pakistan, does not instill confidence. Just look at the attack on Farooq Abdullah and the Srinagar airport.

There is, in contrast, a relative tranquillity along the line of control. In fact, Defence Minister George Fernandes told me recently that peace along the LOC and also in the Valley induces optimism. Army Chief Padmanabhan said as much in a TV interview and recommended that the ceasefire be extended beyond the January 26 deadline. However, there is some doubt on the extent to which Pakistan has withdrawn its troops from the LOC. Military sources indicate that only troops brought in for exercises have been withdrawn.

But too much is not being made of the extent of withdrawal. There was some interest in the Hurriyat, singly or in a delegation, visiting Pakistan to see how militancy can be reined in on the other side. If I read my sources right, I believe there was a strong group within the establishment not averse to their visit. Some of them were earlier allowed to attend OIC summits in days when the OIC took some interest in Kashmir -- Hurriyat leaders will admit that there were few takers for their theme at these global fora today.

But the manner in which both the Hurriyat and their interlocutors played up the passport issue clearly upset even the prime minister who is otherwise so well disposed towards establishing peace with Pakistan. Either an effort was made to trilateralise the dialogue, something New Delhi will simply not accept at this stage, or some of the Hurriyat talked rather insensitively about "our men" on the other side.

The result is that New Delhi is now, more than ever, resolved to giving other non-Hurriyat formations in the Valley, greater play. It would be naive to ignore the American role behind the scenes to nudge both New Delhi and Islamabad towards rapprochement, particularly after President Clinton's visit to New Delhi in March. It was between this visit and Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit to Washington in September that Hizb announced the ceasefire. I remember Rick Inderfurth would not stop talking about the silence of the Pakistani guns along the LOC. The Americans justifiably and discreetly claimed credit for this.

There was a swift, sharp burst to put something together in Clinton's last months but the time frame proved unrealistic. Equally unrealistic is to expect Islamabad to embark on anything meaningful before the Bush administration shows its hand on South Asia despite all the elements of continuity being anticipated.

So, in the meantime, progress in small doses will take place, not in a dramatic way along the New Delhi-Islamabad axis, but within SAARC. A meeting of technical committees took place in Islamabad. The remaining six meetings will take place within the first quarter of the new year -- some of them in New Delhi. Who knows the SAARC standing committee may meet to chalk out higher level dialogues. It is interesting that pessimism on the Indo-Pak axis is matched by a positive outlook on Indo-Pak relations in most SAARC capitals.

Progress will happen, not in a dramatic way along the New Delhi-Islamabad axis, but within SAARC